{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b83a54f-0c98-4efe-a3c4-ebd8f82a5734", "symbol": "603329", "name": "Shanghai Ace Investment&Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.723, "architecture_energy": 32.033, "architecture_maturity": 66.517, "architecture_confidence": 66.201, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.9, "rotation_up": 21.45, "upward_expansion": 15.13, "deceleration": 65.29, "rotation_down": 38.96, "downward_expansion": 60.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.597333, 9.569687, 9.958447, 10.21845 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.93, "trend_reference": 10.589051, "distance_from_trend": -0.062239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.518143, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.221435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146907, "excess_performance": -0.103703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062239, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055917, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.592871, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21232186, "relative_activity": 1.330945, "balance": 0.592871, "dry_up": 1.503002, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077007, "annualized_volatility": 0.313318, "from_high_reference": -0.216877, "from_low_reference": 0.140069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.589051, "fair_value_reference": 10.518143, "structural_low": 8.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.015326, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.049272, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.178433, "worst_return": -0.164192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.073477, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.056731, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.147585, "worst_return": -0.142843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075374, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.059066, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.028147, "worst_return": -0.232332, "sufficient": 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10.347531, 10.585197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.91, "volume": 31055899, "typical_volume": 14037289.9, "trend": 10.790717, "fair_value": 10.527597, "relative_strength": -12.78936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.507882, "energy": 71.268945, "activity_lines": [ 9.585433, 9.915724, 10.281333, 10.525216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.66, "volume": 32533764, "typical_volume": 15086116.6, "trend": 10.751717, "fair_value": 10.524895, "relative_strength": -9.296796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.971748, "energy": 48.982871, "activity_lines": [ 9.610537, 9.79683, 10.198421, 10.452266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.92, "volume": 22956136, "typical_volume": 15226164.0, "trend": 10.677717, "fair_value": 10.517402, "relative_strength": -16.805743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.730719, "energy": 48.822007, "activity_lines": [ 9.406236, 9.578126, 10.055128, 10.334091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.58, "volume": 19185754, "typical_volume": 15626215.75, "trend": 10.624717, "fair_value": 10.515846, "relative_strength": -10.507976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.299131, "energy": 40.187087, "activity_lines": [ 9.462, 9.525622, 9.986312, 10.26327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.93, "volume": 21232186, "typical_volume": 15952714.55, "trend": 10.589051, "fair_value": 10.518143, "relative_strength": -9.221435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.722585, "energy": 32.033065, "activity_lines": [ 9.597333, 9.569687, 9.958447, 10.21845 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }