{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b83d7c6-3fb6-4e8f-ae92-0dda95026387", "symbol": "VNDA", "name": "Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.002, "architecture_energy": 86.375, "architecture_maturity": 33.862, "architecture_confidence": 86.771, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.14, "rotation_up": 10.05, "upward_expansion": 20.58, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 76.68, "downward_expansion": 93.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.204, 5.511273, 5.878238, 6.226903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.0, "trend_reference": 6.651333, "distance_from_trend": -0.248271, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.141859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027589, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.587194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.339498, "excess_performance": -0.526952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.248271, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014909, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027589, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193758, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.339498, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.405744, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6695036, "relative_activity": 1.336066, "balance": 0.405744, "dry_up": 0.974136, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102837, "annualized_volatility": 0.842524, "from_high_reference": -0.496982, "from_low_reference": 0.204819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.651333, "fair_value_reference": 5.141859, "structural_low": 4.4475, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.006818, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": 0.000184, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.186667, "worst_return": -0.235099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.053648, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.169067, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.040752, "worst_return": -0.344461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.17207, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.292668, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": -0.019313, "worst_return": -0.36377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.616524, "energy": 46.401667, "activity_lines": [ 5.907333, 5.974364, 6.278238, 6.561032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.18, "volume": 4252692, "typical_volume": 5905970.35, "trend": 6.834, "fair_value": 5.153397, "relative_strength": -21.914279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.673519, "energy": 60.804474, "activity_lines": [ 5.654, 5.815818, 6.138667, 6.450323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.1, "volume": 3722685, "typical_volume": 5523286.35, "trend": 6.729, "fair_value": 5.148526, "relative_strength": -23.513121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.196417, "energy": 76.622442, "activity_lines": [ 5.415333, 5.662727, 6.004381, 6.338452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.0, "volume": 6695036, "typical_volume": 5011008.7, "trend": 6.651333, "fair_value": 5.141859, "relative_strength": -28.587194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.002312, "energy": 86.37452, "activity_lines": [ 5.204, 5.511273, 5.878238, 6.226903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }