{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b85774f-d994-45f8-a344-682d9a6b39fa", "symbol": "COPN", "name": "Cosmo N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.411, "architecture_energy": 86.247, "architecture_maturity": 45.639, "architecture_confidence": 89.21, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.92, "rotation_up": 24.64, "upward_expansion": 20.49, "deceleration": 37.92, "rotation_down": 65.18, "downward_expansion": 96.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.4, 69.687273, 75.564374, 82.00259 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 66.400002, "trend_reference": 92.478861, "distance_from_trend": -0.281998, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 74.898692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.370052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.453327, "excess_performance": -0.627574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.281998, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113469, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.453327, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.643287, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.643287, "dry_up": 2.74592, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067771, "annualized_volatility": 0.477948, "from_high_reference": -0.519238, "from_low_reference": 0.14894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.478861, "fair_value_reference": 74.898692, "structural_low": 62.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.062037, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.093047, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.044604, "worst_return": -0.07947, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024005, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063687, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075669, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12053, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 75.662689, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, 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"typical_volume": 72.2, "trend": 97.013481, "fair_value": 75.141203, "relative_strength": -33.034548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.964191, "energy": 85.560736, "activity_lines": [ 71.226665, 74.12, 80.179707, 87.474877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.900002, "volume": 1098, "typical_volume": 106.25, "trend": 95.621259, "fair_value": 75.086033, "relative_strength": -32.533274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.116018, "energy": 67.316801, "activity_lines": [ 70.513333, 72.823636, 78.701048, 85.72562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.599998, "volume": 142, "typical_volume": 113.35, "trend": 94.085703, "fair_value": 74.98722, "relative_strength": -36.439485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.045592, "energy": 86.0323, "activity_lines": [ 68.626666, 70.998181, 77.025747, 83.788765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 113.35, "trend": 92.478861, "fair_value": 74.898692, "relative_strength": -37.370052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.411292, "energy": 86.247422, "activity_lines": [ 67.4, 69.687273, 75.564374, 82.00259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }