{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b859dd3-29a5-4068-83af-2e832525c2a4", "symbol": "BEH", "name": "China International Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.741, "architecture_energy": 67.012, "architecture_maturity": 82.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.906, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.42, "rotation_up": 13.56, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.97, "rotation_down": 77.26, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025133, 0.026418, 0.028976, 0.030972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.034233, "distance_from_trend": -0.269718, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.051417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.513776, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.82875, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444444, "excess_performance": -0.59928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.269718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.513776, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.438287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214085, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.003413, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2500, "relative_activity": 0.119789, "balance": 0.003413, "dry_up": 1.173934, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104615, "annualized_volatility": 0.591005, "from_high_reference": -0.537037, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.034233, "fair_value_reference": 0.051417, "structural_low": 0.025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": -0.006674, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.731704, "worst_return": -0.475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.047369, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.02245, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.694915, "worst_return": -0.419889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.073172, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.157633, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.447368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.177273, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.222143, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119048, "worst_return": -0.487805, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.354839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032787, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.516667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.28125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.084, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 1450.0, "trend": 0.090784, "fair_value": 0.183096, "relative_strength": -7.672225, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", 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0.027, "volume": 72000, "typical_volume": 33540.0, "trend": 0.037533, "fair_value": 0.053019, "relative_strength": -39.748395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.359218, "energy": 90.918455, "activity_lines": [ 0.028133, 0.030309, 0.031643, 0.03392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.025, "volume": 14300, "typical_volume": 26485.0, "trend": 0.036867, "fair_value": 0.05259, "relative_strength": -43.927161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.768549, "energy": 80.371331, "activity_lines": [ 0.026733, 0.029127, 0.030871, 0.033112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.025, "volume": 79000, "typical_volume": 28135.0, "trend": 0.036133, "fair_value": 0.052205, "relative_strength": -44.128849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.413889, "energy": 70.261101, "activity_lines": [ 0.026, 0.028091, 0.030195, 0.032346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.025, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 20745.0, "trend": 0.035167, "fair_value": 0.051821, "relative_strength": -43.893278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.213637, "energy": 68.827759, "activity_lines": [ 0.025467, 0.027164, 0.029562, 0.031628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 20870.0, "trend": 0.034233, "fair_value": 0.051417, "relative_strength": -43.82875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.741005, "energy": 67.012077, "activity_lines": [ 0.025133, 0.026418, 0.028976, 0.030972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }