{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b883e55-5f26-473c-ab95-b8873f215454", "symbol": "EMMEUA", "name": "UBS Core MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.072, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.495, "architecture_energy": 25.692, "architecture_maturity": 65.373, "architecture_confidence": 78.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.66, "rotation_up": 18.21, "upward_expansion": 52.8, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 36.26, "downward_expansion": 18.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 143.558665, 145.880362, 145.348141, 141.894594 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 144.869995, "trend_reference": 137.362061, "distance_from_trend": 0.054658, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.025307, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379382, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.065724, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13649, "excess_performance": -0.034402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054658, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078656, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13649, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.66696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1997, "relative_activity": 0.608823, "balance": 0.66696, "dry_up": 1.364059, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03951, "annualized_volatility": 0.23125, "from_high_reference": -0.072179, "from_low_reference": 0.372001 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.362061, "fair_value_reference": 105.025307, "structural_low": 120.459999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00945, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.016062, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.130004, "worst_return": -0.027388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075411, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024007, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236337, "worst_return": -0.008763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056168, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114524, "worst_return": -0.002187, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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144.45676, 140.440516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 143.449997, "volume": 5282, "typical_volume": 3143.8, "trend": 135.93616, "fair_value": 104.284736, "relative_strength": 0.75254, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.992403, "energy": 23.863962, "activity_lines": [ 145.456665, 147.499089, 144.841713, 140.983873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.830002, "volume": 7920, "typical_volume": 3466.9, "trend": 136.647663, "fair_value": 104.636971, "relative_strength": -1.171858, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.806109, "energy": 25.043072, "activity_lines": [ 143.706666, 146.387817, 144.987284, 141.364121 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 144.869995, "volume": 1997, "typical_volume": 3280.1, "trend": 137.362061, "fair_value": 105.025307, "relative_strength": -2.065724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.494572, "energy": 25.692224, "activity_lines": [ 143.558665, 145.880362, 145.348141, 141.894594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }