{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b8e2ae8-1bc9-4d0b-b1e1-2a228acb12cf", "symbol": "VDOT", "name": "VanEck Polkadot ETN A", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.82, "architecture_energy": 93.282, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.466, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.55, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 82.06, "downward_expansion": 95.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.231067, 0.250291, 0.276767, 0.296002 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.227, "trend_reference": 0.329733, "distance_from_trend": -0.311565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.157922, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.803959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.44927, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.360563, "excess_performance": -0.413875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.311565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263879, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.803959, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.614493, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.360563, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 4.705882, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030837, "annualized_volatility": 0.390451, "from_high_reference": -0.810201, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.329733, "fair_value_reference": 1.157922, "structural_low": 0.227, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.107943, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.105556, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.102913, "worst_return": -0.40669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.371371, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.425735, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.05638, "worst_return": -0.463376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.662663, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.776482, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.662663, "worst_return": -0.662663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"2026-06-26", "close": 0.288, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 75.0, "trend": 0.3871, "fair_value": 1.202341, "relative_strength": -57.312574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.207647, "energy": 72.022436, "activity_lines": [ 0.29, 0.299691, 0.317133, 0.34134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.288, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.0, "trend": 0.3775, "fair_value": 1.194968, "relative_strength": -56.815645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.332206, "energy": 88.319042, "activity_lines": [ 0.288, 0.296182, 0.313405, 0.334946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.288, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.0, "trend": 0.369933, "fair_value": 1.187712, "relative_strength": -54.775614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.324873, "energy": 78.964566, "activity_lines": [ 0.288, 0.293455, 0.30991, 0.329172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.227, "volume": 16000, "typical_volume": 850.0, "trend": 0.360333, "fair_value": 1.180087, "relative_strength": -63.315629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -97.1834, "energy": 78.889526, "activity_lines": [ 0.267667, 0.280182, 0.300838, 0.319951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.227, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 850.0, "trend": 0.350733, "fair_value": 1.172583, "relative_strength": -62.367374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.962222, "energy": 78.933808, "activity_lines": [ 0.2514, 0.268564, 0.29229, 0.311348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.227, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 850.0, "trend": 0.341133, "fair_value": 1.165195, "relative_strength": -61.770385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.218165, "energy": 97.314687, "activity_lines": [ 0.2392, 0.2586, 0.284267, 0.303366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.227, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 850.0, "trend": 0.329733, "fair_value": 1.157922, "relative_strength": -61.44927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.819604, "energy": 93.282299, "activity_lines": [ 0.231067, 0.250291, 0.276767, 0.296002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }