{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b916dcb-7d23-4eaf-95d1-90e2e937238e", "symbol": "ALAVI", "name": "AdVini S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.321, "architecture_energy": 15.143, "architecture_maturity": 58.081, "architecture_confidence": 86.798, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.46, "rotation_up": 27.84, "upward_expansion": 53.15, "deceleration": 79.35, "rotation_down": 29.89, "downward_expansion": 26.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.866667, 16.956364, 16.986191, 16.759785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.9, "trend_reference": 16.233333, "distance_from_trend": 0.041068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.659615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152827, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.98931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.165517, "excess_performance": 0.112206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094382, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.079893, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165517, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.356728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236, "relative_activity": 0.201108, "balance": 0.356728, "dry_up": 0.481466, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023213, "annualized_volatility": 0.239484, "from_high_reference": -0.081522, "from_low_reference": 0.495575 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.233333, "fair_value_reference": 14.659615, "structural_low": 13.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.006909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011765, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.104762, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.166338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01, "worst_return": -0.116279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.057143, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026069, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03876, "worst_return": -0.089531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030075, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.188811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02907, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.0, "volume": 1684, "typical_volume": 1765.35, "trend": 19.656464, "fair_value": 19.289218, "relative_strength": -1.105696, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.326948, "energy": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.473277, "energy": 53.691008, "activity_lines": [ 17.180001, 17.078182, 17.033333, 16.617635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 897, "typical_volume": 1943.65, "trend": 16.036667, "fair_value": 14.700641, "relative_strength": 11.928537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.084435, "energy": 35.210592, "activity_lines": [ 17.046667, 17.016364, 17.021429, 16.668387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 690, "typical_volume": 1670.05, "trend": 16.146667, "fair_value": 14.679487, "relative_strength": 9.728106, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.251063, "energy": 18.186731, "activity_lines": [ 16.906668, 16.965455, 16.996667, 16.711183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.9, "volume": 236, "typical_volume": 1173.5, "trend": 16.233333, "fair_value": 14.659615, "relative_strength": 7.98931, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.321248, "energy": 15.142741, "activity_lines": [ 16.866667, 16.956364, 16.986191, 16.759785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }