{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5b921c76-0973-46c2-9957-fe91a6fa9a15",
    "symbol": "QQCE",
    "name": "Invesco ESG NASDAQ 100 ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 50.374,
    "architecture_energy": 29.04,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.143,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.701,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.78,
        "rotation_up": 32.22,
        "upward_expansion": 62.73,
        "deceleration": 85.49,
        "rotation_down": 28.02,
        "downward_expansion": 21.73
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        41.515332,
        41.837399,
        41.335671,
        39.874421
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 42.459999,
    "trend_reference": 38.104916,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.114292,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 29.74708,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.427367,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 3.056921,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.235675,
    "excess_performance": 0.115254,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.114292,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059734,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.427367,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.02692,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030569,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.032569,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.235675,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.836155,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 10500,
      "relative_activity": 0.143654,
      "balance": 2.836155,
      "dry_up": 0.816433,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.037466,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.198773,
      "from_high_reference": -0.030855,
      "from_low_reference": 0.328401
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 38.104916,
      "fair_value_reference": 29.74708,
      "structural_low": 32.110001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.022319,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000475,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.079522,
        "worst_return": -0.063281,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.081121,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009985,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.151985,
        "worst_return": -0.068081,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.212744,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.062616,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.231018,
        "worst_return": 0.176161,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.312654,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.054372,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.340227,
        "worst_return": 0.285081,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.099463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.001102,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.085745,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.110782,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.087178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.107967,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.01687,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.011242,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.000872,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.054307,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.044794,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.098565,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.005471,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041708,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "fair_value": 27.618854,
        "relative_strength": -0.228698,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 39260.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 39481.8,
        "trend": 35.38131,
        "fair_value": 27.896836,
        "relative_strength": 6.313848,
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "energy": 97.376039,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "trend": 35.569319,
        "fair_value": 28.041177,
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 48324.2,
        "trend": 35.767996,
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        "energy": 94.878118,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 54525.5,
        "trend": 35.957058,
        "fair_value": 28.332053,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 55137.85,
        "trend": 36.143081,
        "fair_value": 28.474077,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 42.222832,
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        "typical_volume": 58742.95,
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        "fair_value": 28.617692,
        "relative_strength": 7.146437,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 60580.7,
        "trend": 36.860367,
        "fair_value": 28.915494,
        "relative_strength": 6.442054,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.922673,
        "energy": 65.318199,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.440722,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 42.52,
        "volume": 5000,
        "typical_volume": 60605.4,
        "trend": 37.080289,
        "fair_value": 29.06079,
        "relative_strength": 6.556145,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 65.141792,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 119000,
        "typical_volume": 66036.95,
        "trend": 37.3495,
        "fair_value": 29.211204,
        "relative_strength": 7.894849,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.152813,
        "energy": 66.862932,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.777049,
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          40.46793,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 41.119999,
        "volume": 83200,
        "typical_volume": 66214.75,
        "trend": 37.540061,
        "fair_value": 29.345053,
        "relative_strength": 2.896001,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.291101,
        "energy": 52.649825,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.243196,
          42.251251,
          40.722362,
          39.182267
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 40.66,
        "volume": 71200,
        "typical_volume": 69335.35,
        "trend": 37.711628,
        "fair_value": 29.473163,
        "relative_strength": 1.464585,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.009622,
        "energy": 41.561003,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.629533,
          41.991054,
          40.900137,
          39.383553
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 40.759998,
        "volume": 73800,
        "typical_volume": 72773.1,
        "trend": 37.899922,
        "fair_value": 29.60369,
        "relative_strength": 2.15326,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.326296,
        "energy": 29.079499,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.243999,
          41.753105,
          41.053874,
          39.580222
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.459999,
        "volume": 10500,
        "typical_volume": 73092.3,
        "trend": 38.104916,
        "fair_value": 29.74708,
        "relative_strength": 3.056921,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.373727,
        "energy": 29.039972,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.515332,
          41.837399,
          41.335671,
          39.874421
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}