{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b93dd82-72bb-4c21-9bb6-d04bbe26f227", "symbol": "NVX", "name": "NOVONIX Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.146, "architecture_energy": 67.28, "architecture_maturity": 90.696, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 26.41, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 52.48, "rotation_down": 64.6, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.146333, 0.154636, 0.188571, 0.215925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.145, "trend_reference": 0.258667, "distance_from_trend": -0.439433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.566859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.744204, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.100428, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.567164, "excess_performance": -0.63087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.439433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263757, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.744204, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.621004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214255, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.567164, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.204496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10070286, "relative_activity": 1.025855, "balance": 0.204496, "dry_up": 1.128507, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171088, "annualized_volatility": 0.578457, "from_high_reference": -0.857143, "from_low_reference": 0.074074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.258667, "fair_value_reference": 0.566859, "structural_low": 0.135, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.071063, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.070289, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.345845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.162437, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.197425, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.170068, "worst_return": -0.652106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.28125, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.329826, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.042424, "worst_return": -0.725429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 0.145, "volume": 11633071, "typical_volume": 10563104.95, "trend": 0.281667, "fair_value": 0.576923, "relative_strength": -61.212534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.992927, "energy": 88.429428, "activity_lines": [ 0.15, 0.169455, 0.203857, 0.232978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.145, "volume": 8591575, "typical_volume": 10025981.6, "trend": 0.272667, "fair_value": 0.571731, "relative_strength": -61.514532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.005512, "energy": 79.879315, "activity_lines": [ 0.148, 0.161091, 0.195881, 0.224161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.145, "volume": 10070286, "typical_volume": 9816477.7, "trend": 0.258667, "fair_value": 0.566859, "relative_strength": -62.100428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.145614, "energy": 67.279602, "activity_lines": [ 0.146333, 0.154636, 0.188571, 0.215925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }