{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b941b8a-80fd-4fbe-b881-df4f99f0d978", "symbol": "HOME-B", "name": "HomeMaid AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 65.825, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.568, "architecture_energy": 10.634, "architecture_maturity": 16.499, "architecture_confidence": 62.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.46, "rotation_up": 28.51, "upward_expansion": 48.64, "deceleration": 78.05, "rotation_down": 25.96, "downward_expansion": 24.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.84, 32.009091, 32.076751, 31.661281 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.799999, "trend_reference": 31.348074, "distance_from_trend": 0.014416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.63355, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.404994, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.128646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026928, "excess_performance": -0.088422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014416, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.404994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105829, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010094, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026928, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.904235, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31620, "relative_activity": 1.722921, "balance": 0.904235, "dry_up": 1.685638, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073472, "annualized_volatility": 0.282407, "from_high_reference": -0.211397, "from_low_reference": 0.214565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.348074, "fair_value_reference": 22.63355, "structural_low": 26.182222, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.008128, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.016244, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.204461, "worst_return": -0.151351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025907, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.04056, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.245353, "worst_return": -0.463731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013333, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.060386, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.15174, "worst_return": 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12.381134, "activity_lines": [ 31.893333, 32.241616, 31.889863, 31.524578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.0, "volume": 31522, "typical_volume": 17141.55, "trend": 31.285111, "fair_value": 22.416745, "relative_strength": -10.69193, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.139181, "energy": 14.606773, "activity_lines": [ 31.86, 32.145455, 31.968349, 31.57417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 19647, "typical_volume": 17369.45, "trend": 31.364667, "fair_value": 22.526707, "relative_strength": -10.824574, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.571245, "energy": 15.693775, "activity_lines": [ 31.893333, 32.094546, 32.049101, 31.633195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 31620, "typical_volume": 18352.55, "trend": 31.348074, "fair_value": 22.63355, "relative_strength": -13.128646, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.568123, "energy": 10.633573, "activity_lines": [ 31.84, 32.009091, 32.076751, 31.661281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }