{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b97bb29-f3c7-4068-a89c-4194e491ea30", "symbol": "TNC", "name": "True North Copper Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.619, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.913, "architecture_energy": 15.773, "architecture_maturity": 34.735, "architecture_confidence": 57.991, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.86, "rotation_up": 19.92, "upward_expansion": 9.7, "deceleration": 57.07, "rotation_down": 40.55, "downward_expansion": 66.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.414333, 0.413364, 0.424881, 0.43 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.46, "trend_reference": 0.452, "distance_from_trend": 0.017699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.322738, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425304, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.256676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08, "excess_performance": -0.143706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051417, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.425304, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023571, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012567, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027124, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.584217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1413702, "relative_activity": 1.510534, "balance": 1.584217, "dry_up": 1.215424, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144649, "annualized_volatility": 0.68514, "from_high_reference": -0.394737, "from_low_reference": 1.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.452, "fair_value_reference": 0.322738, "structural_low": 0.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.110208, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.372881, "worst_return": -0.33, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03907, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091099, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.529412, "worst_return": -0.48, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.218025, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.252653, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.283951, "worst_return": -0.72, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.618519, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.613579, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.2, "worst_return": 0.037037, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.33, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.571429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.876667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.343284, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190083, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.32, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12987, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082353, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.22, "volume": 2743007, "typical_volume": 2588699.8, "trend": 0.15637, "fair_value": 0.40508, "relative_strength": 55.272223, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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0.440344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.39, "volume": 957568, "typical_volume": 1014333.5, "trend": 0.464167, "fair_value": 0.320559, "relative_strength": -8.755387, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.597425, "energy": 36.667581, "activity_lines": [ 0.403, 0.415727, 0.424857, 0.435398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.38, "volume": 1512588, "typical_volume": 1003146.7, "trend": 0.4595, "fair_value": 0.321456, "relative_strength": -13.324415, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.206135, "energy": 39.404855, "activity_lines": [ 0.395333, 0.406364, 0.420905, 0.429968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.46, "volume": 1413702, "typical_volume": 935895.3, "trend": 0.452, "fair_value": 0.322738, "relative_strength": 1.256676, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.913168, "energy": 15.772974, "activity_lines": [ 0.414333, 0.413364, 0.424881, 0.43 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }