{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5b9e8cd8-61eb-484b-b897-3e4cf3e5bd2e", "symbol": "AKI", "name": "AKI India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.617, "architecture_energy": 56.156, "architecture_maturity": 81.509, "architecture_confidence": 86.686, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.66, "rotation_up": 12.17, "upward_expansion": 10.75, "deceleration": 40.72, "rotation_down": 65.19, "downward_expansion": 84.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.358667, 4.514364, 4.698429, 4.813118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.48, "trend_reference": 5.084333, "distance_from_trend": -0.118862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.88859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.677433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.370807, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.319149, "excess_performance": -0.27544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.677433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015085, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010386, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.824008, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1662617, "relative_activity": 3.387862, "balance": 0.824008, "dry_up": 1.534752, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111264, "annualized_volatility": 0.48399, "from_high_reference": -0.578154, "from_low_reference": 0.178947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.084333, "fair_value_reference": 13.88859, "structural_low": 3.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.06805, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.057776, "regime_survival": 0.944444, "best_return": 0.577889, "worst_return": -0.256863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.267442, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.201148, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.548843, "worst_return": -0.443946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.295058, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.187378, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.086118, "worst_return": -0.612357, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088271, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.348837, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.15, "volume": 732121, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 16.6, "volume": 589067, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 15.1, "volume": 38836, 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"activity_lines": [ 4.68, 4.759636, 4.847857, 4.994946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.26, "volume": 632430, "typical_volume": 764559.95, "trend": 5.232333, "fair_value": 14.060897, "relative_strength": -33.147023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.012405, "energy": 59.715043, "activity_lines": [ 4.520667, 4.659636, 4.792048, 4.92643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.14, "volume": 322811, "typical_volume": 720011.55, "trend": 5.144, "fair_value": 13.959231, "relative_strength": -35.346854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.883185, "energy": 69.316245, "activity_lines": [ 4.362, 4.549273, 4.728524, 4.855957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.48, "volume": 1662617, "typical_volume": 490757.0, "trend": 5.084333, "fair_value": 13.88859, "relative_strength": -29.370807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.616578, "energy": 56.155669, "activity_lines": [ 4.358667, 4.514364, 4.698429, 4.813118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }