{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5ba017c4-b39e-4840-820d-401e1beaf5c8",
    "symbol": "JOE",
    "name": "St Joe Company",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 48.079,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -17.276,
    "architecture_energy": 11.039,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.03,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.278,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.48,
        "rotation_up": 24.54,
        "upward_expansion": 14.74,
        "deceleration": 37.86,
        "rotation_down": 31.72,
        "downward_expansion": 62.41
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        63.594667,
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        63.831824,
        64.568176
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 67.35,
    "trend_reference": 65.471892,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.028686,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 54.666871,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232008,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -1.189465,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.012993,
    "excess_performance": -0.138618,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028686,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020105,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.232008,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005573,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011895,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.043126,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012993,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.709595,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1148554,
      "relative_activity": 0.956013,
      "balance": 1.709595,
      "dry_up": 0.934081,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.053372,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.345037,
      "from_high_reference": -0.079831,
      "from_low_reference": 0.463323
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 65.471892,
      "fair_value_reference": 54.666871,
      "structural_low": 58.6083,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.006649,
        "positive_rate": 0.466667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.533333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009579,
        "regime_survival": 0.733333,
        "best_return": 0.120245,
        "worst_return": -0.172846,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "positive_rate": 0.5,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.198949,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.142475,
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      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.056839,
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 0.850356,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 54.552218,
        "relative_strength": -8.366007,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 1251393.5,
        "trend": 65.133875,
        "fair_value": 54.607863,
        "relative_strength": -7.287488,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.080806,
        "energy": 56.437543,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 62.12,
        "volume": 1218822,
        "typical_volume": 1253218.25,
        "trend": 65.253123,
        "fair_value": 54.604697,
        "relative_strength": -4.399103,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.395202,
        "energy": 56.630725,
        "activity_lines": [
          61.580667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 62.24,
        "volume": 959330,
        "typical_volume": 1255270.05,
        "trend": 65.343528,
        "fair_value": 54.62812,
        "relative_strength": -5.316276,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.284932,
        "energy": 54.546001,
        "activity_lines": [
          61.610667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 67.35,
        "volume": 1148554,
        "typical_volume": 1201399.8,
        "trend": 65.471892,
        "fair_value": 54.666871,
        "relative_strength": -1.189465,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -17.275959,
        "energy": 11.039035,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.594667,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}