{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ba25a24-25f9-4433-945a-c9edd1adc924", "symbol": "6160", "name": "Cipherlab Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.687, "architecture_energy": 73.92, "architecture_maturity": 16.403, "architecture_confidence": 77.923, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.75, "rotation_up": 8.88, "upward_expansion": 16.32, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 79.17, "downward_expansion": 94.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.346667, 15.032727, 15.696667, 15.903548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 14.15, "trend_reference": 16.265, "distance_from_trend": -0.130034, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.915064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.354325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.815624, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.162722, "excess_performance": -0.604094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.354325, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.448156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003801, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162722, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.52471, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 194000, "relative_activity": 0.328265, "balance": 1.52471, "dry_up": 0.500137, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08997, "annualized_volatility": 0.256729, "from_high_reference": -0.40795, "from_low_reference": 0.067925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.265, "fair_value_reference": 21.915064, "structural_low": 13.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.009174, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.021766, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.438679, "worst_return": -0.137295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009174, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.067831, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.248394, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044063, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.037782, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.092077, "worst_return": -0.134921, "sufficient": true }, { 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16.392727, 16.363333, 16.446237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.25, "volume": 308055, "typical_volume": 625034.1, "trend": 16.591667, "fair_value": 22.17556, "relative_strength": -41.255207, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.156286, "energy": 47.946215, "activity_lines": [ 15.683334, 16.153636, 16.263571, 16.354516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.25, "volume": 399238, "typical_volume": 619741.3, "trend": 16.481667, "fair_value": 22.084936, "relative_strength": -43.353659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.708577, "energy": 65.455314, "activity_lines": [ 15.12, 15.752727, 16.073809, 16.203441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.05, "volume": 281002, "typical_volume": 596647.65, "trend": 16.366667, "fair_value": 21.998718, "relative_strength": -44.471236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.423608, "energy": 73.148706, "activity_lines": [ 14.63, 15.353636, 15.874048, 16.046559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.15, "volume": 194000, "typical_volume": 590985.4, "trend": 16.265, "fair_value": 21.915064, "relative_strength": -44.815624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.686536, "energy": 73.920082, "activity_lines": [ 14.346667, 15.032727, 15.696667, 15.903548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }