{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ba4aeee-8826-453a-867a-a2697429a36e", "symbol": "600746", "name": "Jiangsu SOPO Chemical Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.941, "architecture_energy": 32.023, "architecture_maturity": 74.649, "architecture_confidence": 79.717, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.0, "rotation_up": 31.68, "upward_expansion": 23.25, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 26.72, "downward_expansion": 61.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.343333, 6.042, 6.486238, 6.976065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.7, "trend_reference": 7.408333, "distance_from_trend": -0.095613, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.145967, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.472506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15404, "excess_performance": -0.110837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095613, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049279, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062408, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699061, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92534888, "relative_activity": 0.998609, "balance": 0.699061, "dry_up": 1.639319, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092193, "annualized_volatility": 0.52405, "from_high_reference": -0.380776, "from_low_reference": 0.324111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.408333, "fair_value_reference": 7.145967, "structural_low": 5.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.005939, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.005015, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.205882, "worst_return": -0.151429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.038136, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.013809, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.320721, "worst_return": -0.237016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.080681, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.00465, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.166937, "worst_return": -0.19774, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 7.148303, "relative_strength": -16.05069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.011863, "energy": 60.953365, "activity_lines": [ 5.747333, 5.794, 6.616238, 7.07828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.56, "volume": 137062210, "typical_volume": 99734361.0, "trend": 7.414333, "fair_value": 7.146973, "relative_strength": -8.409716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.341873, "energy": 42.00604, "activity_lines": [ 6.065333, 5.900909, 6.538143, 7.022151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.7, "volume": 92534888, "typical_volume": 92663741.25, "trend": 7.408333, "fair_value": 7.145967, "relative_strength": -8.472506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.941471, "energy": 32.023499, "activity_lines": [ 6.343333, 6.042, 6.486238, 6.976065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }