{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ba79ecf-ad32-424c-9c6e-8d7de7e7e98a", "symbol": "TPAC", "name": "Thai Plaspac Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.218, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.695, "architecture_energy": 12.78, "architecture_maturity": 27.265, "architecture_confidence": 67.762, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.04, "rotation_up": 24.18, "upward_expansion": 44.41, "deceleration": 78.97, "rotation_down": 40.08, "downward_expansion": 36.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.523333, 8.592727, 8.611931, 8.60038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.5, "trend_reference": 8.516204, "distance_from_trend": -0.001903, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.001498, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150127, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.424251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082102, "excess_performance": -0.110223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001903, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150127, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028015, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082102, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.231266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 260600, "relative_activity": 1.142281, "balance": 0.231266, "dry_up": 1.931599, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045701, "annualized_volatility": 0.167926, "from_high_reference": -0.079655, "from_low_reference": 0.239909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.516204, "fair_value_reference": 10.001498, "structural_low": 7.617049, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006289, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00633, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.171642, "worst_return": -0.089286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013072, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.075681, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.16875, "worst_return": -0.146667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003467, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065695, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.355187, "worst_return": -0.10661, 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-0.42032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03268, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038541, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005848, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.520354, "volume": 857700, "typical_volume": 641475.0, "trend": 13.640449, "fair_value": 12.732187, "relative_strength": 19.696108, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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10.140724, "relative_strength": -10.146496, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.692888, "energy": 28.45957, "activity_lines": [ 8.733333, 8.680909, 8.65835, 8.596578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.4, "volume": 625100, "typical_volume": 226485.0, "trend": 8.463609, "fair_value": 10.094157, "relative_strength": -11.637213, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.378716, "energy": 6.686672, "activity_lines": [ 8.623333, 8.629091, 8.632711, 8.594055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.55, "volume": 161800, "typical_volume": 229510.0, "trend": 8.48836, "fair_value": 10.048552, "relative_strength": -8.790545, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.070274, "energy": 9.397903, "activity_lines": [ 8.573333, 8.612727, 8.623749, 8.599629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.5, "volume": 260600, "typical_volume": 228140.0, "trend": 8.516204, "fair_value": 10.001498, "relative_strength": -8.424251, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.694951, "energy": 12.779647, "activity_lines": [ 8.523333, 8.592727, 8.611931, 8.60038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }