{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ba848c3-f5da-45da-9bec-f00a45bf85f5", "symbol": "PINV", "name": "Purpose Global Innovators Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.183, "architecture_energy": 22.429, "architecture_maturity": 68.383, "architecture_confidence": 82.249, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.09, "rotation_up": 15.79, "upward_expansion": 46.41, "deceleration": 87.98, "rotation_down": 42.66, "downward_expansion": 29.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.495334, 33.901273, 34.224048, 32.563871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.060001, "trend_reference": 30.266667, "distance_from_trend": 0.092291, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.82359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3877, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.394896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.414029, "excess_performance": 0.293608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092291, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144096, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.3877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063949, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.414029, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.853933, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1700, "relative_activity": 0.338308, "balance": 0.853933, "dry_up": 1.248756, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083764, "annualized_volatility": 0.412651, "from_high_reference": -0.195229, "from_low_reference": 0.484508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.266667, "fair_value_reference": 23.82359, "structural_low": 22.42, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.013676, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.013296, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.068293, "worst_return": -0.16371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027947, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.040427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.062087, "worst_return": -0.238825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000881, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.118287, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.529709, "worst_return": -0.243816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039537, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 96.30191, "energy": 98.571904, "activity_lines": [ 33.373333, 30.601091, 28.154429, 26.99 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 34.810001, "volume": 9900, "typical_volume": 1160.0, "trend": 26.122, "fair_value": 22.714423, "relative_strength": 22.381707, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.944626, "energy": 91.513347, "activity_lines": [ 34.22, 31.732909, 28.931952, 27.570839 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 36.0, "volume": 14400, "typical_volume": 1870.0, "trend": 26.454667, "fair_value": 22.819487, "relative_strength": 24.909846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.119616, "energy": 91.242065, "activity_lines": [ 35.078667, 32.896, 29.767762, 28.208129 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 36.5, "volume": 6700, "typical_volume": 2200.0, "trend": 26.846667, "fair_value": 22.928654, "relative_strength": 27.282799, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.045189, "energy": 83.363019, "activity_lines": [ 35.79, 33.957818, 30.593095, 28.856215 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 38.130001, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 2580.0, "trend": 27.326667, "fair_value": 23.043782, "relative_strength": 30.226647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.666034, "energy": 73.753617, "activity_lines": [ 36.704667, 35.088728, 31.519905, 29.584172 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 41.080002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2580.0, "trend": 27.936, "fair_value": 23.181474, "relative_strength": 39.134262, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.594745, "energy": 80.882655, "activity_lines": [ 38.282001, 36.498728, 32.665238, 30.471484 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 36.91, "volume": 18100, "typical_volume": 3485.0, "trend": 28.372667, "fair_value": 23.293269, "relative_strength": 24.468271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.704619, "energy": 66.916234, "activity_lines": [ 38.150667, 36.884728, 33.340619, 31.050452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 34.889999, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 3585.0, "trend": 28.741, "fair_value": 23.392308, "relative_strength": 16.474378, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.033609, "energy": 63.622582, "activity_lines": [ 37.206, 36.760364, 33.759191, 31.470925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.91, "volume": 10500, "typical_volume": 4110.0, "trend": 29.100333, "fair_value": 23.489936, "relative_strength": 16.034812, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.874185, "energy": 50.887981, "activity_lines": [ 36.342, 36.574182, 34.132143, 31.868925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.559999, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 4480.0, "trend": 29.379, "fair_value": 23.566987, "relative_strength": 4.981071, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.473016, "energy": 28.790159, "activity_lines": [ 34.467333, 35.715091, 34.140191, 32.027613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4480.0, "trend": 29.691, "fair_value": 23.654551, "relative_strength": 9.36749, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.390123, "energy": 31.811393, "activity_lines": [ 33.517333, 35.153455, 34.26, 32.262516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.26, "volume": 15800, "typical_volume": 5050.0, "trend": 29.958, "fair_value": 23.732628, "relative_strength": 3.993242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.169813, "energy": 23.658314, "activity_lines": [ 32.518, 34.331454, 34.172095, 32.363742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.060001, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 5025.0, "trend": 30.266667, "fair_value": 23.82359, "relative_strength": 6.394896, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.183222, "energy": 22.429055, "activity_lines": [ 32.495334, 33.901273, 34.224048, 32.563871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }