{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5baf1635-5b98-4553-af01-de3b8a7ce2ba", "symbol": "GILLANDERS", "name": "Gillanders Arbuthnot and Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.988, "architecture_energy": 15.837, "architecture_maturity": 26.159, "architecture_confidence": 67.3, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.55, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 11.89, "deceleration": 48.32, "rotation_down": 40.0, "downward_expansion": 46.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.736668, 89.966182, 91.027334, 90.639549 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 90.690002, "trend_reference": 90.870667, "distance_from_trend": -0.001988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 102.459679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.535649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001981, "excess_performance": 0.041728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114871, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176057, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09111, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66241, "relative_activity": 2.06095, "balance": 0.751021, "dry_up": 0.791629, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075142, "annualized_volatility": 0.341642, "from_high_reference": -0.312382, "from_low_reference": 0.19329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.870667, "fair_value_reference": 102.459679, "structural_low": 76.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006286, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001501, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.376193, "worst_return": -0.145832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.074555, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.043629, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.532281, "worst_return": -0.176807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022689, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.033803, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.678466, "worst_return": -0.230156, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125828, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.524602, "energy": 15.336958, "activity_lines": [ 90.724666, 91.175999, 91.265047, 91.246645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 89.980003, "volume": 14286, "typical_volume": 35150.65, "trend": 92.091334, "fair_value": 102.112372, "relative_strength": -11.480537, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.180137, "energy": 15.140218, "activity_lines": [ 90.531334, 90.668546, 91.255571, 91.08514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.980003, "volume": 10861, "typical_volume": 34258.0, "trend": 91.659, "fair_value": 102.202628, "relative_strength": -10.727205, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.366076, "energy": 19.681716, "activity_lines": [ 89.736002, 90.102728, 91.067572, 90.819893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.309998, "volume": 10387, "typical_volume": 30105.8, "trend": 91.136334, "fair_value": 102.316474, "relative_strength": -10.735068, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.986123, "energy": 21.075685, "activity_lines": [ 89.451334, 89.888182, 91.001286, 90.668344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.690002, "volume": 66241, "typical_volume": 32141.0, "trend": 90.870667, "fair_value": 102.459679, "relative_strength": -9.535649, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.987534, "energy": 15.837242, "activity_lines": [ 89.736668, 89.966182, 91.027334, 90.639549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }