{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bb1cc63-9965-4cd7-bdc6-059a3c9ed8ce", "symbol": "AAM", "name": "AuMEGA Metals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.534, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.891, "architecture_energy": 8.541, "architecture_maturity": 46.105, "architecture_confidence": 54.776, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.22, "rotation_up": 34.52, "upward_expansion": 21.25, "deceleration": 34.82, "rotation_down": 18.12, "downward_expansion": 52.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0374, 0.036036, 0.036195, 0.036708 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.042, "trend_reference": 0.0375, "distance_from_trend": 0.12, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.043679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.03845, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.799081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166667, "excess_performance": 0.102961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.03845, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069748, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047991, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.953052, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4278638, "relative_activity": 1.723168, "balance": 0.953052, "dry_up": 1.159709, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111722, "annualized_volatility": 0.626967, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.448276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0375, "fair_value_reference": 0.043679, "structural_low": 0.029, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.062341, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.809524, "worst_return": -0.297872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.121795, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.113424, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.846154, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.247078, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.179487, "worst_return": -0.565217, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.035, "volume": 3681159, "typical_volume": 2656595.65, "trend": 0.037767, "fair_value": 0.04416, "relative_strength": -8.11431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.574395, "energy": 19.726476, "activity_lines": [ 0.035133, 0.034745, 0.036062, 0.036815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.033, "volume": 1113775, "typical_volume": 2438060.6, "trend": 0.0375, "fair_value": 0.044006, "relative_strength": -13.06173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.388499, "energy": 21.212489, "activity_lines": [ 0.0346, 0.034345, 0.0357, 0.036508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.036, "volume": 2444693, "typical_volume": 2404733.75, "trend": 0.0374, "fair_value": 0.043795, "relative_strength": -7.258763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.382485, "energy": 16.373396, "activity_lines": [ 0.035133, 0.034636, 0.035657, 0.036411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.042, "volume": 4278638, "typical_volume": 2483007.45, "trend": 0.0375, "fair_value": 0.043679, "relative_strength": 4.799081, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.891479, "energy": 8.54107, "activity_lines": [ 0.0374, 0.036036, 0.036195, 0.036708 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }