{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bbb3ca8-7c9f-485f-b25b-713896219c2c", "symbol": "DUELL", "name": "Duell Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.24, "architecture_energy": 72.263, "architecture_maturity": 17.225, "architecture_confidence": 77.554, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.08, "rotation_up": 61.48, "upward_expansion": 87.66, "deceleration": 48.64, "rotation_down": 17.07, "downward_expansion": 16.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.284, 2.224364, 2.137381, 2.025183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.36, "trend_reference": 1.982667, "distance_from_trend": 0.190316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.368113, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.560367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.998292, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048889, "excess_performance": -0.074686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.190316, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.560367, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158943, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.288102, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.426207, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35755, "relative_activity": 1.346136, "balance": 3.426207, "dry_up": 1.407692, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070893, "annualized_volatility": 0.881693, "from_high_reference": -0.484716, "from_low_reference": 0.983193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.982667, "fair_value_reference": 5.368113, "structural_low": 1.19, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.08605, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.061301, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.068262, "worst_return": -0.103837, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.254063, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.18756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.254063, "worst_return": -0.254063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.318284, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.208653, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.318284, "worst_return": -0.318284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 2.1, "volume": 33951, "typical_volume": 40762.0, "trend": 2.038667, "fair_value": 5.638041, "relative_strength": -30.156121, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.819828, "energy": 21.395117, "activity_lines": [ 2.128667, 2.134636, 2.019714, 1.967355 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 2.24, "volume": 49047, "typical_volume": 31539.7, "trend": 2.015333, "fair_value": 5.535884, "relative_strength": -23.263299, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.155548, "energy": 35.288337, "activity_lines": [ 2.162, 2.155091, 2.056214, 1.980344 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 2.35, "volume": 30807, "typical_volume": 26811.7, "trend": 1.999667, "fair_value": 5.436695, "relative_strength": -18.931038, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.048499, "energy": 65.122836, "activity_lines": [ 2.228667, 2.189636, 2.09881, 2.001935 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 2.36, "volume": 35755, "typical_volume": 26561.2, "trend": 1.982667, "fair_value": 5.368113, "relative_strength": -16.998292, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.240238, "energy": 72.262898, "activity_lines": [ 2.284, 2.224364, 2.137381, 2.025183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }