{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bbc03d0-6b1d-4f23-9fef-e944cf2ad3cf", "symbol": "HUM", "name": "Humm Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.245, "architecture_energy": 79.891, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.206, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.04, "rotation_up": 14.94, "upward_expansion": 16.46, "deceleration": 42.41, "rotation_down": 78.67, "downward_expansion": 94.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.433667, 0.458727, 0.514762, 0.555058 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.415, "trend_reference": 0.607342, "distance_from_trend": -0.316694, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.549559, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.244849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.047092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.430665, "excess_performance": -0.494371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.316694, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.244849, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.403442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.376581, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.430665, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.20235, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3732936, "relative_activity": 1.284116, "balance": 0.20235, "dry_up": 2.011752, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105653, "annualized_volatility": 0.419597, "from_high_reference": -0.464516, "from_low_reference": 0.012195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.607342, "fair_value_reference": 0.549559, "structural_low": 0.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.026539, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.018087, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.573034, "worst_return": -0.361703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.028298, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.031736, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.517659, "worst_return": -0.232653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.05217, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05115, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.440115, "worst_return": -0.325911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-77.814123, "energy": 90.626252, "activity_lines": [ 0.489, 0.527091, 0.573357, 0.604855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.465, "volume": 5703962, "typical_volume": 2614270.6, "trend": 0.634954, "fair_value": 0.549245, "relative_strength": -25.565939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.395146, "energy": 89.70836, "activity_lines": [ 0.474667, 0.510182, 0.559667, 0.593428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.45, "volume": 3559171, "typical_volume": 2597634.95, "trend": 0.627125, "fair_value": 0.549517, "relative_strength": -27.481274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.927418, "energy": 88.456616, "activity_lines": [ 0.461333, 0.493455, 0.545667, 0.581495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.42, "volume": 10396661, "typical_volume": 2956878.6, "trend": 0.617643, "fair_value": 0.549597, "relative_strength": -33.543278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.355112, "energy": 84.624364, "activity_lines": [ 0.447, 0.474818, 0.529881, 0.568132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.415, "volume": 3732936, "typical_volume": 2907009.25, "trend": 0.607342, "fair_value": 0.549559, "relative_strength": -36.047092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.244736, "energy": 79.89086, "activity_lines": [ 0.433667, 0.458727, 0.514762, 0.555058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }