{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bbfd88a-b6b6-48e4-94ca-391454d124b7", "symbol": "002121", "name": "Shenzhen Clou Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.937, "architecture_energy": 62.79, "architecture_maturity": 66.524, "architecture_confidence": 88.506, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 21.57, "upward_expansion": 11.49, "deceleration": 57.73, "rotation_down": 61.41, "downward_expansion": 84.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.973333, 5.151636, 5.902667, 6.548151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.15, "trend_reference": 7.383333, "distance_from_trend": -0.302483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.674936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092501, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.43951, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.435926, "excess_performance": -0.443325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.302483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.354395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14815, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.435926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.390998, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134165246, "relative_activity": 0.860836, "balance": 2.390998, "dry_up": 1.05556, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145183, "annualized_volatility": 0.54414, "from_high_reference": -0.520484, "from_low_reference": 0.15991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.383333, "fair_value_reference": 5.674936, "structural_low": 4.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.04878, "positive_rate": 0.28, "directional_follow_through": 0.72, "median_excess_return": -0.021161, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 0.548718, "worst_return": -0.228346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.160875, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042625, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.078283, "worst_return": -0.375499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.14709, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.17222, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.655936, "worst_return": -0.274131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 178215332.4, "trend": 7.563667, "fair_value": 5.695769, "relative_strength": -39.730397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.395377, "energy": 86.074555, "activity_lines": [ 4.93, 5.436, 6.226667, 6.860538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.04, "volume": 140146658, "typical_volume": 162389821.9, "trend": 7.468333, "fair_value": 5.683397, "relative_strength": -33.927469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.984872, "energy": 65.541179, "activity_lines": [ 4.925333, 5.260364, 6.048619, 6.69772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.15, "volume": 134165246, "typical_volume": 155854625.05, "trend": 7.383333, "fair_value": 5.674936, "relative_strength": -35.43951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.936682, "energy": 62.789883, "activity_lines": [ 4.973333, 5.151636, 5.902667, 6.548151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }