{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bc347c5-2596-4854-abdd-3ac604dae1fe", "symbol": "TEVA", "name": "Teva Pharma Industries Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.567, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.952, "architecture_energy": 19.702, "architecture_maturity": 13.753, "architecture_confidence": 66.462, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.79, "rotation_up": 41.76, "upward_expansion": 61.79, "deceleration": 54.98, "rotation_down": 23.81, "downward_expansion": 16.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.752, 33.472909, 33.534429, 33.112215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.36, "trend_reference": 32.803333, "distance_from_trend": 0.077939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.594295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.804607, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.209711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019314, "excess_performance": -0.106311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077939, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053956, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.804607, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.102097, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019314, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.952712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24500512, "relative_activity": 0.852955, "balance": 0.952712, "dry_up": 0.952353, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076443, "annualized_volatility": 0.400913, "from_high_reference": -0.053153, "from_low_reference": 1.174622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.803333, "fair_value_reference": 19.594295, "structural_low": 27.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004489, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.038704, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.290304, "worst_return": -0.123028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022104, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164983, "worst_return": -0.052686, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.601576, "worst_return": -0.020202, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.088664, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.414136, "worst_return": -0.178719, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.383768, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071823, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238117, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007898, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-22", 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"energy": 18.360002, "activity_lines": [ 33.595333, 33.942545, 33.202476, 32.895935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.95, "volume": 28057959, "typical_volume": 30925544.35, "trend": 32.536333, "fair_value": 18.975064, "relative_strength": 8.939159, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.506382, "energy": 16.694758, "activity_lines": [ 33.368667, 33.706, 33.237619, 32.929419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.03, "volume": 21269453, "typical_volume": 30701727.45, "trend": 32.592333, "fair_value": 19.125833, "relative_strength": 6.676972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.803308, "energy": 10.106152, "activity_lines": [ 32.918, 33.338545, 33.19119, 32.896753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.81, "volume": 22065950, "typical_volume": 29628754.75, "trend": 32.556333, "fair_value": 19.268462, "relative_strength": 2.465668, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.176764, "energy": 15.282505, "activity_lines": [ 32.234, 32.816545, 33.037286, 32.781763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.01, "volume": 41586744, "typical_volume": 29452251.45, "trend": 32.691667, "fair_value": 19.430321, "relative_strength": 13.99389, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.433395, "energy": 15.520123, "activity_lines": [ 32.994667, 33.121455, 33.284524, 32.940065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.36, "volume": 24500512, "typical_volume": 28724279.1, "trend": 32.803333, "fair_value": 19.594295, "relative_strength": 10.209711, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.951718, "energy": 19.702077, "activity_lines": [ 33.752, 33.472909, 33.534429, 33.112215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }