{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bdd7cc3-d082-45e7-9e5e-ed2a2fb69c41", "symbol": "HBRE3", "name": "HBR Realty Empreendimentos Imobili\u00e1rios S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.252, "architecture_energy": 84.439, "architecture_maturity": 68.695, "architecture_confidence": 93.136, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 12.06, "upward_expansion": 21.01, "deceleration": 37.52, "rotation_down": 73.09, "downward_expansion": 94.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.156, 2.276364, 2.51019, 2.668839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.22, "trend_reference": 2.897, "distance_from_trend": -0.23369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.801531, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416025, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.994377, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363897, "excess_performance": -0.306848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23369, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145716, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.369944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363897, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.13062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2659400, "relative_activity": 1.394517, "balance": 0.13062, "dry_up": 1.316504, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093555, "annualized_volatility": 0.384814, "from_high_reference": -0.548019, "from_low_reference": 0.132653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.897, "fair_value_reference": 3.801531, "structural_low": 1.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.031954, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.031547, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.275862, "worst_return": -0.249412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043569, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.042308, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.513995, "worst_return": -0.380165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070539, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.029934, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.403302, "worst_return": -0.283058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.241736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144886, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090634, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132432, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": 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2.649818, 2.818619, 2.956931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.3, "volume": 10195100, "typical_volume": 2371180.0, "trend": 3.122487, "fair_value": 3.880974, "relative_strength": -38.966401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.449848, "energy": 69.68996, "activity_lines": [ 2.482, 2.568727, 2.758714, 2.899693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.16, "volume": 3108200, "typical_volume": 2116905.0, "trend": 3.064761, "fair_value": 3.862876, "relative_strength": -40.895437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.875683, "energy": 75.489545, "activity_lines": [ 2.365333, 2.477091, 2.691667, 2.837597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.1, "volume": 2588900, "typical_volume": 1904675.0, "trend": 2.999667, "fair_value": 3.846343, "relative_strength": -42.110407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.127367, "energy": 85.270727, "activity_lines": [ 2.254667, 2.39, 2.624381, 2.775355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.08, "volume": 1686000, "typical_volume": 1849735.0, "trend": 2.951333, "fair_value": 3.825553, "relative_strength": -43.36803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.162412, "energy": 88.987942, "activity_lines": [ 2.164667, 2.313455, 2.558905, 2.716022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.22, "volume": 2659400, "typical_volume": 1907040.0, "trend": 2.897, "fair_value": 3.801531, "relative_strength": -36.994377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.252361, "energy": 84.438527, "activity_lines": [ 2.156, 2.276364, 2.51019, 2.668839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }