{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bdee7ee-3412-4379-8b32-a880bf24967b", "symbol": "ALPRI", "name": "Prismaflex International, S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.94, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.824, "architecture_energy": 24.998, "architecture_maturity": 58.104, "architecture_confidence": 78.274, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.34, "rotation_up": 21.53, "upward_expansion": 55.06, "deceleration": 90.72, "rotation_down": 35.05, "downward_expansion": 18.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.289333, 8.529091, 8.447524, 8.117591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.18, "trend_reference": 7.720333, "distance_from_trend": 0.05954, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.022801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.386268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136111, "excess_performance": 0.0828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05954, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014539, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046543, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.445878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1641, "relative_activity": 0.807162, "balance": 2.445878, "dry_up": 0.828435, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073538, "annualized_volatility": 0.445541, "from_high_reference": -0.419858, "from_low_reference": 0.460714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.720333, "fair_value_reference": 7.022801, "structural_low": 5.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.057756, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.193396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.661017, "worst_return": -0.320755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023219, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016913, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.728814, "worst_return": -0.156863, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.039886, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179487, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040984, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163793, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.186441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198113, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006803, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.194444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009685, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.38, "volume": 845, "typical_volume": 1447.15, "trend": 6.353333, "fair_value": 8.550256, "relative_strength": -13.309641, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.020517, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 8.66, "volume": 2518, "typical_volume": 2290.2, "trend": 7.601333, "fair_value": 6.972801, "relative_strength": -2.851177, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.047372, "energy": 59.946402, "activity_lines": [ 9.013333, 8.817818, 8.322905, 7.958516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.0, "volume": 972, "typical_volume": 2266.8, "trend": 7.613, "fair_value": 6.984083, "relative_strength": -9.777188, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.196951, "energy": 38.080816, "activity_lines": [ 8.705333, 8.702545, 8.341048, 7.984237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.58, "volume": 3163, "typical_volume": 2085.65, "trend": 7.652333, "fair_value": 6.999468, "relative_strength": -3.227244, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.337159, "energy": 29.81516, "activity_lines": [ 8.606667, 8.693818, 8.40919, 8.046624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.26, "volume": 961, "typical_volume": 2091.8, "trend": 7.687667, "fair_value": 7.012929, "relative_strength": -7.869113, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.163251, "energy": 24.630792, "activity_lines": [ 8.436, 8.618909, 8.436476, 8.085828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.18, "volume": 1641, "typical_volume": 2033.05, "trend": 7.720333, "fair_value": 7.022801, "relative_strength": -10.386268, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.824236, "energy": 24.997556, "activity_lines": [ 8.289333, 8.529091, 8.447524, 8.117591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }