{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5be12fa5-9f0a-4707-af49-baeffd97094f", "symbol": "CHOW", "name": "Chow Bright Ventures Holdings Public Company", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.203, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.369, "architecture_energy": 5.147, "architecture_maturity": 26.176, "architecture_confidence": 63.928, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.64, "rotation_up": 28.29, "upward_expansion": 48.55, "deceleration": 73.98, "rotation_down": 27.6, "downward_expansion": 28.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.351333, 1.352182, 1.366476, 1.351548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.33, "trend_reference": 1.317333, "distance_from_trend": 0.009615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.650769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.059948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.192325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009615, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071003, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194315, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094664, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742492, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 585500, "relative_activity": 0.309852, "balance": 0.742492, "dry_up": 0.386006, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069983, "annualized_volatility": 0.309698, "from_high_reference": -0.203593, "from_low_reference": 0.414894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.317333, "fair_value_reference": 1.650769, "structural_low": 1.18, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.005263, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.027798, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.050847, "worst_return": -0.139423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.065026, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.117255, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.108108, "worst_return": -0.151079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.179856, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.223214, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.234234, "worst_return": -0.278846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.522084, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.454494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.418269, "worst_return": -0.625899, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139073, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098361, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080645, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.238532, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075342, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096154, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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860500, "typical_volume": 1912350.0, "trend": 1.301667, "fair_value": 1.652885, "relative_strength": -9.841404, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.869009, "energy": 12.022949, "activity_lines": [ 1.361333, 1.360545, 1.369286, 1.347118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.35, "volume": 196600, "typical_volume": 1891815.0, "trend": 1.309667, "fair_value": 1.651859, "relative_strength": -8.885785, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.240762, "energy": 14.274197, "activity_lines": [ 1.36, 1.358, 1.369095, 1.350237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.33, "volume": 585500, "typical_volume": 1889610.0, "trend": 1.317333, "fair_value": 1.650769, "relative_strength": -9.059948, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.368902, "energy": 5.147071, "activity_lines": [ 1.351333, 1.352182, 1.366476, 1.351548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }