{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5be2b270-5217-4408-b920-e3fa3fc05bbc", "symbol": "QLT", "name": "Qualitech Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.57, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.598, "architecture_energy": 88.924, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.89, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.28, "rotation_up": 81.73, "upward_expansion": 97.67, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.049333, 1.892545, 1.730524, 1.662224 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.04, "trend_reference": 1.591173, "distance_from_trend": 0.282073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.414628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.155149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.331673, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.342989, "excess_performance": 0.150664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.282073, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.155149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.279963, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023317, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.367439, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.342989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.323705, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 281800, "relative_activity": 2.993891, "balance": 1.323705, "dry_up": 2.726162, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052036, "annualized_volatility": 0.497282, "from_high_reference": -0.146872, "from_low_reference": 0.665306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.591173, "fair_value_reference": 2.414628, "structural_low": 1.225, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006667, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.032972, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.373449, "worst_return": -0.236686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032609, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.024925, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.097084, "worst_return": -0.217687, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.081238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046788, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055211, "worst_return": -0.217687, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.899962, "energy": 75.586334, "activity_lines": [ 1.622667, 1.565091, 1.536567, 1.526575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.12, "volume": 169300, "typical_volume": 68400.0, "trend": 1.538707, "fair_value": 2.451779, "relative_strength": 1.902479, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.472672, "energy": 96.818188, "activity_lines": [ 1.804667, 1.671818, 1.593805, 1.56497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.12, "volume": 202800, "typical_volume": 71615.0, "trend": 1.559393, "fair_value": 2.442251, "relative_strength": 2.612625, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.386661, "energy": 97.501466, "activity_lines": [ 1.945333, 1.767091, 1.647714, 1.602473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.02, "volume": 372500, "typical_volume": 87920.0, "trend": 1.57446, "fair_value": 2.42869, "relative_strength": -0.171682, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.116494, "energy": 89.130397, "activity_lines": [ 2.012, 1.833273, 1.689238, 1.632189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.04, "volume": 281800, "typical_volume": 94125.0, "trend": 1.591173, "fair_value": 2.414628, "relative_strength": 2.331673, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.597813, "energy": 88.924316, "activity_lines": [ 2.049333, 1.892545, 1.730524, 1.662224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }