{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5be2de09-6ad3-4bc1-a7b0-ffef9d64b935", "symbol": "600881", "name": "Jilin Yatai (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.564, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.795, "architecture_energy": 23.273, "architecture_maturity": 10.99, "architecture_confidence": 63.053, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.32, "rotation_up": 56.45, "upward_expansion": 39.89, "deceleration": 32.23, "rotation_down": 21.01, "downward_expansion": 19.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.722, 1.670909, 1.625095, 1.631763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.73, "trend_reference": 1.667667, "distance_from_trend": 0.037378, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.743013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007466, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.638803, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054645, "excess_performance": -0.011441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037378, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007466, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172631, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054645, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.127294, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 386065344, "relative_activity": 1.21522, "balance": 1.127294, "dry_up": 2.559643, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112494, "annualized_volatility": 0.512812, "from_high_reference": -0.270042, "from_low_reference": 0.330769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.667667, "fair_value_reference": 1.743013, "structural_low": 1.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.000658, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007542, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.116093, "worst_return": -0.093023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03439, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046852, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.408261, "worst_return": -0.244019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.120833, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.155583, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.166748, "worst_return": -0.258216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084577, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081967, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.500473, "energy": 12.658685, "activity_lines": [ 1.651333, 1.623455, 1.596905, 1.622602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.76, "volume": 1030559861, "typical_volume": 310921632.2, "trend": 1.672, "fair_value": 1.745577, "relative_strength": 0.530681, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.494322, "energy": 21.68305, "activity_lines": [ 1.699333, 1.652364, 1.612524, 1.628022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.73, "volume": 386065344, "typical_volume": 317691820.7, "trend": 1.667667, "fair_value": 1.743013, "relative_strength": -3.638803, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.794926, "energy": 23.273318, "activity_lines": [ 1.722, 1.670909, 1.625095, 1.631763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }