{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5be5cb42-4d66-489a-8cc2-79e3038fef15", "symbol": "BAER", "name": "Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.24, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.906, "architecture_energy": 52.237, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.698, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.92, "rotation_up": 14.52, "upward_expansion": 8.31, "deceleration": 42.46, "rotation_down": 57.34, "downward_expansion": 76.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.695333, 1.783636, 1.864429, 1.944043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.26, "trend_reference": 2.1125, "distance_from_trend": -0.40355, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.16984, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.602504, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.895728, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.564014, "excess_performance": -0.751467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.40355, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000158, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.602504, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.448957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.564014, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.686326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14396617, "relative_activity": 4.217219, "balance": 0.686326, "dry_up": 1.509511, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.277454, "annualized_volatility": 0.873007, "from_high_reference": -0.633721, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.1125, "fair_value_reference": 3.16984, "structural_low": 1.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.009675, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.020578, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.560748, "worst_return": -0.427807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.046636, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.033557, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.492891, "worst_return": -0.464115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.130082, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.252355, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.635071, "worst_return": -0.456566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.425837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.42671, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123153, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.123457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.506249, "energy": 24.467434, "activity_lines": [ 1.911333, 1.919273, 1.944167, 2.033882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.85, "volume": 962164, "typical_volume": 2883701.15, "trend": 2.147833, "fair_value": 3.235032, "relative_strength": -15.49631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.770848, "energy": 21.72926, "activity_lines": [ 1.898667, 1.906364, 1.932238, 2.014989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.94, "volume": 2871820, "typical_volume": 2853158.1, "trend": 2.151833, "fair_value": 3.203558, "relative_strength": -11.663822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.273127, "energy": 15.278967, "activity_lines": [ 1.917333, 1.906545, 1.930571, 2.001581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.26, "volume": 14396617, "typical_volume": 3413770.0, "trend": 2.1125, "fair_value": 3.16984, "relative_strength": -44.895728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.906145, "energy": 52.237001, "activity_lines": [ 1.695333, 1.783636, 1.864429, 1.944043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }