{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bebb35a-6e49-4d12-81a8-895aadcc90c7", "symbol": "364690", "name": "Samsung KODEX Energy & chemicals Securities ETF-Kodex Innovative Technology Active ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.434, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -10.1, "architecture_energy": 29.488, "architecture_maturity": 59.842, "architecture_confidence": 82.612, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.81, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 43.26, "deceleration": 87.5, "rotation_down": 53.45, "downward_expansion": 39.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 37516.157292, 41167.681179, 42499.343071, 40439.808283 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35720.0, "trend_reference": 37224.292057, "distance_from_trend": -0.040412, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18740.551495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.906027, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.892117, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.302689, "excess_performance": 0.07286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040412, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243181, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.906027, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.722708, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038921, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.302689, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.772279, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5412, "relative_activity": 0.340238, "balance": 1.772279, "dry_up": 0.63375, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159948, "annualized_volatility": 0.512308, "from_high_reference": -0.356918, "from_low_reference": 1.235734 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37224.292057, "fair_value_reference": 18740.551495, "structural_low": 27719.11984, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003759, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.001243, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.28845, "worst_return": -0.051992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.098353, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.028933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.319259, "worst_return": -0.004458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057258, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.025738, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111555, "worst_return": -0.005201, "sufficient": false }, { 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40312.331284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38271.386719, "volume": 11819, "typical_volume": 16697.7, "trend": 36397.301172, "fair_value": 18426.046118, "relative_strength": 4.464386, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.465597, "energy": 23.941184, "activity_lines": [ 41337.55599, 44553.822088, 43296.468257, 40468.232401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37100.0, "volume": 8876, "typical_volume": 16500.65, "trend": 36863.272656, "fair_value": 18587.582682, "relative_strength": 2.590056, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.684899, "energy": 23.404236, "activity_lines": [ 39253.13099, 42914.61527, 42980.15506, 40513.567809 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35720.0, "volume": 5412, "typical_volume": 15906.5, "trend": 37224.292057, "fair_value": 18740.551495, "relative_strength": 3.892117, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.100494, "energy": 29.487773, "activity_lines": [ 37516.157292, 41167.681179, 42499.343071, 40439.808283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }