{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bf2e168-5634-4d63-9bd8-1d8def948796", "symbol": "PPS", "name": "Project Planning Service Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.514, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.293, "architecture_energy": 15.05, "architecture_maturity": 18.164, "architecture_confidence": 69.295, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.58, "rotation_up": 27.75, "upward_expansion": 57.7, "deceleration": 89.01, "rotation_down": 23.18, "downward_expansion": 12.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.18, 0.182182, 0.17781, 0.176387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.18, "trend_reference": 0.175667, "distance_from_trend": 0.024668, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.273526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.341926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.7983, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.058824, "excess_performance": -0.133502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024668, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.341926, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100814, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068363, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058824, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.149864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 746200, "relative_activity": 0.430125, "balance": 0.149864, "dry_up": 1.288689, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094017, "annualized_volatility": 0.400192, "from_high_reference": -0.357143, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.175667, "fair_value_reference": 0.273526, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.029741, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.025482, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.116279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012243, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.36207, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.044771, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.586208, "worst_return": -0.271605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.13371, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.250563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068967, "worst_return": -0.55, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.513514, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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"volume": 3264200, "typical_volume": 2270120.0, "trend": 0.175, "fair_value": 0.280321, "relative_strength": -23.509486, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.197458, "energy": 38.984311, "activity_lines": [ 0.184, 0.181273, 0.175905, 0.175484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.18, "volume": 4011700, "typical_volume": 2219620.0, "trend": 0.175333, "fair_value": 0.277949, "relative_strength": -22.905845, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.786897, "energy": 23.908664, "activity_lines": [ 0.182, 0.181818, 0.176524, 0.175806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 920600, "typical_volume": 1994555.0, "trend": 0.175667, "fair_value": 0.275705, "relative_strength": -21.114371, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.440744, "energy": 15.854688, "activity_lines": [ 0.180667, 0.182182, 0.17719, 0.176108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.18, "volume": 746200, "typical_volume": 1734845.0, "trend": 0.175667, "fair_value": 0.273526, "relative_strength": -19.7983, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.29273, "energy": 15.050378, "activity_lines": [ 0.18, 0.182182, 0.17781, 0.176387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }