{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bf4348b-feba-460a-aeb9-d091f5b87243", "symbol": "DEC", "name": "Diversified Energy Company", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.079, "architecture_energy": 36.814, "architecture_maturity": 12.638, "architecture_confidence": 94.047, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.59, "rotation_up": 23.42, "upward_expansion": 4.8, "deceleration": 49.91, "rotation_down": 48.05, "downward_expansion": 78.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 998.066667, 1000.327273, 1044.08444, 1069.382307 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1020.0, "trend_reference": 1073.053693, "distance_from_trend": -0.049442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1118.710945, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.775294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046591, "excess_performance": -0.004644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06275, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046591, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 454973, "relative_activity": 1.091404, "balance": 0.710941, "dry_up": 0.956706, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079418, "annualized_volatility": 0.370176, "from_high_reference": -0.286575, "from_low_reference": 0.112393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1073.053693, "fair_value_reference": 1118.710945, "structural_low": 919.615639, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.014617, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.007484, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.382273, "worst_return": -0.232433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.100818, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.079749, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.472112, "worst_return": -0.316167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04232, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.016122, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.317645, "worst_return": -0.489055, 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4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.628239, "energy": 31.607132, "activity_lines": [ 997.933333, 1008.086847, 1065.399282, 1079.173549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 977.0, "volume": 488081, "typical_volume": 548379.75, "trend": 1072.839571, "fair_value": 1124.07381, "relative_strength": -16.598287, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.553134, "energy": 47.688349, "activity_lines": [ 990.4, 998.709091, 1052.430459, 1072.791312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1020.0, "volume": 454973, "typical_volume": 416869.6, "trend": 1073.053693, "fair_value": 1118.710945, "relative_strength": -12.775294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.079375, "energy": 36.814405, "activity_lines": [ 998.066667, 1000.327273, 1044.08444, 1069.382307 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }