{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5bfe0f55-1c24-43f7-b736-5c9925ade36d", "symbol": "BXE", "name": "CDW Holding Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.859, "architecture_energy": 42.12, "architecture_maturity": 58.412, "architecture_confidence": 87.966, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.94, "rotation_up": 15.79, "upward_expansion": 4.77, "deceleration": 50.31, "rotation_down": 59.9, "downward_expansion": 78.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.080533, 0.083091, 0.084838, 0.089075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.098567, "distance_from_trend": -0.188367, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.131212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.3903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.167005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411765, "excess_performance": -0.5666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188367, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.3903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038986, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.41167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12600, "relative_activity": 0.081277, "balance": 0.457081, "dry_up": 1.325109, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122115, "annualized_volatility": 0.529304, "from_high_reference": -0.507128, "from_low_reference": 0.15942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.098567, "fair_value_reference": 0.131212, "structural_low": 0.069, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.006939, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.023202, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.166095, "worst_return": -0.167889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.033534, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.148935, "worst_return": -0.114735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053724, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095884, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.212763, "worst_return": -0.15122, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.192127, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175423, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122948, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.083, "volume": 224100, "typical_volume": 203705.0, "trend": 0.102033, "fair_value": 0.132631, "relative_strength": -39.489114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.310033, "energy": 31.887606, "activity_lines": [ 0.085533, 0.086036, 0.086619, 0.09212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.075, "volume": 504400, "typical_volume": 166155.0, "trend": 0.100167, "fair_value": 0.131841, "relative_strength": -44.911402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.84931, "energy": 42.131513, "activity_lines": [ 0.0818, 0.084018, 0.085443, 0.090376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 12600, "typical_volume": 155025.0, "trend": 0.098567, "fair_value": 0.131212, "relative_strength": -41.167005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.859259, "energy": 42.120099, "activity_lines": [ 0.080533, 0.083091, 0.084838, 0.089075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }