{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c03cc8a-b57b-4663-8c5f-f5a8fba4d6c0", "symbol": "FOA", "name": "Finance of America Companies Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.626, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.602, "architecture_energy": 19.841, "architecture_maturity": 45.338, "architecture_confidence": 70.902, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.58, "rotation_up": 28.6, "upward_expansion": 62.07, "deceleration": 87.51, "rotation_down": 25.9, "downward_expansion": 14.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.958667, 23.407818, 22.35519, 21.576473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.12, "trend_reference": 21.144667, "distance_from_trend": 0.046127, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.982218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.810171, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010969, "excess_performance": -0.114656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046127, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003472, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030166, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010969, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456787, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 297157, "relative_activity": 0.958446, "balance": 0.456787, "dry_up": 0.997819, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115793, "annualized_volatility": 0.576882, "from_high_reference": -0.257469, "from_low_reference": 0.402663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.144667, "fair_value_reference": 16.982218, "structural_low": 15.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.051486, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.035721, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.934056, "worst_return": -0.21134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.165448, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.135271, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.346679, "worst_return": -0.469072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.270986, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.345441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.928116, "worst_return": -0.368098, "sufficient": false 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238947, "typical_volume": 368571.6, "trend": 21.160667, "fair_value": 16.875359, "relative_strength": 3.406503, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.341063, "energy": 66.202884, "activity_lines": [ 24.768, 22.866364, 21.490095, 21.114452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.25, "volume": 437604, "typical_volume": 369404.25, "trend": 21.214667, "fair_value": 16.906449, "relative_strength": -0.686944, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.442018, "energy": 75.985752, "activity_lines": [ 25.004, 23.310727, 21.863619, 21.313763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.85, "volume": 260638, "typical_volume": 364200.25, "trend": 21.211667, "fair_value": 16.928564, "relative_strength": -5.445431, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.523836, "energy": 69.12742, "activity_lines": [ 24.506, 23.450364, 22.080476, 21.419269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.75, "volume": 242058, "typical_volume": 340630.45, "trend": 21.221667, "fair_value": 16.948756, "relative_strength": -6.691446, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.813204, "energy": 37.121083, "activity_lines": [ 23.788667, 23.516545, 22.26319, 21.518516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.12, "volume": 297157, "typical_volume": 310040.3, "trend": 21.144667, "fair_value": 16.982218, "relative_strength": -11.810171, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.602054, "energy": 19.841339, "activity_lines": [ 22.958667, 23.407818, 22.35519, 21.576473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }