{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c04984a-0a83-45a3-8807-ea6867399b91", "symbol": "MNDL3", "name": "Mundial S.A. - Produtos de Consumo", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.951, "architecture_energy": 12.919, "architecture_maturity": 38.357, "architecture_confidence": 72.464, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.77, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 55.24, "deceleration": 77.86, "rotation_down": 36.61, "downward_expansion": 25.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.758667, 18.017818, 17.979381, 17.877183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.110001, "trend_reference": 17.719667, "distance_from_trend": -0.034406, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.742003, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.086901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.757626, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.044134, "excess_performance": 0.012914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.086901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077576, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119302, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044134, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.65, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.474496, "balance": 3.65, "dry_up": 0.332147, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05876, "annualized_volatility": 0.396922, "from_high_reference": -0.222273, "from_low_reference": 0.179187 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.719667, "fair_value_reference": 15.742003, "structural_low": 15.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": 0.011396, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.221798, "worst_return": -0.220741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020067, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.079329, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.332922, "worst_return": -0.113524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.118406, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.68158, "worst_return": -0.436719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.20483, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041501, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.564161, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.219512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1272, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027793, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", 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35.136044, "energy": 34.103672, "activity_lines": [ 18.098, 17.759273, 17.566286, 17.472 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 17.139999, "volume": 6100, "typical_volume": 12540.0, "trend": 17.509333, "fair_value": 15.376667, "relative_strength": -19.687822, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.914659, "energy": 19.735908, "activity_lines": [ 17.862, 17.660545, 17.557571, 17.44615 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 15.9, "volume": 2700, "typical_volume": 12405.0, "trend": 17.426, "fair_value": 15.398478, "relative_strength": -22.267421, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.04567, "energy": 14.025068, "activity_lines": [ 17.236666, 17.364545, 17.427286, 17.342322 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 17.5, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 12560.0, "trend": 17.369667, "fair_value": 15.422516, "relative_strength": -13.303951, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.764928, "energy": 6.363842, "activity_lines": [ 17.218, 17.394, 17.451286, 17.347097 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 18.99, "volume": 13300, "typical_volume": 13040.0, "trend": 17.385333, "fair_value": 15.461234, "relative_strength": -4.079306, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.305942, "energy": 23.738822, "activity_lines": [ 17.728667, 17.687091, 17.610048, 17.451634 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12610.0, "trend": 17.392, "fair_value": 15.48351, "relative_strength": -7.063748, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.567297, "energy": 16.486925, "activity_lines": [ 17.76, 17.718545, 17.636714, 17.478387 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 18.49, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 12260.0, "trend": 17.411667, "fair_value": 15.513478, "relative_strength": -4.03952, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.910894, "energy": 39.372122, "activity_lines": [ 18.101333, 17.87, 17.719524, 17.549226 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 18.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11980.0, "trend": 17.398667, "fair_value": 15.541202, "relative_strength": -4.541399, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.479286, "energy": 41.359004, "activity_lines": [ 18.189333, 17.914363, 17.74619, 17.587183 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.68, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 5590.0, "trend": 17.388, "fair_value": 15.571122, "relative_strength": -3.006969, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.18841, "energy": 43.505519, "activity_lines": [ 18.364, 18.064182, 17.84, 17.669849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4680.0, "trend": 17.388, "fair_value": 15.600769, "relative_strength": -4.009463, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.55995, "energy": 44.013321, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.168727, 17.912952, 17.741591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.5, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 4725.0, "trend": 17.471, "fair_value": 15.630897, "relative_strength": -5.307267, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.014291, "energy": 37.067448, "activity_lines": [ 18.468667, 18.259636, 17.981143, 17.813333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4135.0, "trend": 17.540667, "fair_value": 15.665353, "relative_strength": -2.481373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.937311, "energy": 37.978538, "activity_lines": [ 18.490667, 18.359636, 18.046238, 17.87972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.110001, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 4130.0, "trend": 17.567667, "fair_value": 15.688494, "relative_strength": -9.473006, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.70226, "energy": 10.377969, "activity_lines": [ 18.048667, 18.182182, 17.979857, 17.851935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.5, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 4205.0, "trend": 17.651, "fair_value": 15.713013, "relative_strength": -3.846519, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.454485, "energy": 18.436145, "activity_lines": [ 18.129334, 18.235455, 18.049143, 17.912086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.110001, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 4215.0, "trend": 17.719667, "fair_value": 15.742003, "relative_strength": -7.757626, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.951006, "energy": 12.918912, "activity_lines": [ 17.758667, 18.017818, 17.979381, 17.877183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }