{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c07f04f-251b-4e99-9894-35325bba9c26", "symbol": "BGRENERGY", "name": "BGR Energy Systems Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.376, "architecture_energy": 63.461, "architecture_maturity": 13.023, "architecture_confidence": 81.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.37, "rotation_up": 9.61, "upward_expansion": 12.27, "deceleration": 38.05, "rotation_down": 75.68, "downward_expansion": 90.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 282.900006, 294.670001, 301.288286, 303.208796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 266.700012, "trend_reference": 309.322666, "distance_from_trend": -0.137794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 153.837756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.733645, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.134535, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.188992, "excess_performance": -0.145283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070306, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.733645, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237196, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188992, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.595422, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 422634, "relative_activity": 1.362932, "balance": 0.595422, "dry_up": 0.777517, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105809, "annualized_volatility": 0.539845, "from_high_reference": -0.456601, "from_low_reference": 1.439404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 309.322666, "fair_value_reference": 153.837756, "structural_low": 240.100006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00951, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009084, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.25908, "worst_return": -0.110609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.070339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031572, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.277302, "worst_return": -0.198283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024034, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.035824, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139955, "worst_return": -0.008071, "sufficient": false }, { 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296.966665, 307.960906, 306.126189, 307.797741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 287.600006, "volume": 264288, "typical_volume": 311860.65, "trend": 311.522666, "fair_value": 152.522372, "relative_strength": -5.881716, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.169985, "energy": 47.544386, "activity_lines": [ 292.503335, 303.143635, 304.655809, 306.10058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 266.700012, "volume": 422634, "typical_volume": 310091.8, "trend": 309.322666, "fair_value": 153.837756, "relative_strength": -14.134535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.375541, "energy": 63.461476, "activity_lines": [ 282.900006, 294.670001, 301.288286, 303.208796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }