{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c080b29-827c-4db6-a191-ef8e022e0cdc", "symbol": "NACON", "name": "Nacon S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -88.713, "architecture_energy": 73.986, "architecture_maturity": 90.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.451, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.31, "rotation_up": 17.81, "upward_expansion": 13.75, "deceleration": 39.91, "rotation_down": 68.43, "downward_expansion": 87.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.136067, 0.144793, 0.16456, 0.177584 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.083, "trend_reference": 0.21767, "distance_from_trend": -0.618689, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.819449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.898712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -81.365632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.778667, "excess_performance": -0.831978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.618689, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379875, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.898712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.813656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230154, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.778667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.492017, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4861641, "relative_activity": 4.492607, "balance": 0.492017, "dry_up": 1.661866, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.374791, "annualized_volatility": 1.71615, "from_high_reference": -0.914521, "from_low_reference": 0.031056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.21767, "fair_value_reference": 0.819449, "structural_low": 0.0805, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.066079, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.046732, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.94974, "worst_return": -0.5536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.060503, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.088825, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.194842, "worst_return": -0.705986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.27591, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.301823, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.479167, "worst_return": -0.734507, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.240803, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189583, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -57.195252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.509363, "energy": 45.255727, "activity_lines": [ 0.159587, 0.167369, 0.178668, 0.206542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.16, "volume": 530558, "typical_volume": 1148311.15, "trend": 0.25827, "fair_value": 0.852263, "relative_strength": -65.771852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.873229, "energy": 40.761714, "activity_lines": [ 0.162, 0.163673, 0.176687, 0.199384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.164, "volume": 1586318, "typical_volume": 925580.8, "trend": 0.246003, "fair_value": 0.840494, "relative_strength": -64.070715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.101503, "energy": 33.111286, "activity_lines": [ 0.165133, 0.162013, 0.175562, 0.193302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.152, "volume": 214986, "typical_volume": 871327.5, "trend": 0.232637, "fair_value": 0.829558, "relative_strength": -66.294732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.709444, "energy": 28.692058, "activity_lines": [ 0.1628, 0.159153, 0.173311, 0.187238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.083, "volume": 4861641, "typical_volume": 1082142.6, "trend": 0.21767, "fair_value": 0.819449, "relative_strength": -81.365632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.713386, "energy": 73.986387, "activity_lines": [ 0.136067, 0.144793, 0.16456, 0.177584 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }