{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c124f8f-0fdd-4780-9b11-5f40d38da99a", "symbol": "EMQQ", "name": "EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet UCITS ETF - Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.982, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.328, "architecture_energy": 53.411, "architecture_maturity": 4.497, "architecture_confidence": 74.269, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.48, "rotation_up": 71.77, "upward_expansion": 45.8, "deceleration": 22.98, "rotation_down": 14.1, "downward_expansion": 27.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.789533, 8.594564, 8.476495, 8.521232 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.002, "trend_reference": 8.729533, "distance_from_trend": 0.031212, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.256205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027463, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.974589, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055305, "excess_performance": -0.226197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068409, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027463, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044789, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051695, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.147803, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71373, "relative_activity": 1.50406, "balance": 1.147803, "dry_up": 1.047888, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029498, "annualized_volatility": 0.213615, "from_high_reference": -0.219931, "from_low_reference": 0.166062 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.729533, "fair_value_reference": 9.256205, "structural_low": 7.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008721, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.007236, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.060109, "worst_return": -0.089897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024889, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.042695, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.06438, "worst_return": -0.121195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029358, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.13125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054152, "worst_return": -0.105416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001404, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032354, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.126209, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.699, "volume": 68866, "typical_volume": 95779.1, "trend": 8.064967, "fair_value": 10.902853, "relative_strength": -12.241311, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": 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"direction": -10.057286, "energy": 24.096107, "activity_lines": [ 8.518133, 8.377291, 8.3759, 8.504912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.855, "volume": 58159, "typical_volume": 48408.1, "trend": 8.778333, "fair_value": 9.250686, "relative_strength": -19.519023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.931408, "energy": 32.832157, "activity_lines": [ 8.659, 8.478291, 8.419676, 8.506802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.002, "volume": 71373, "typical_volume": 47453.55, "trend": 8.729533, "fair_value": 9.256205, "relative_strength": -19.974589, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.327836, "energy": 53.410933, "activity_lines": [ 8.789533, 8.594564, 8.476495, 8.521232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }