{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c13e207-f288-4a3d-a660-37f1bc648ee7", "symbol": "XMJP", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.896, "architecture_energy": 35.405, "architecture_maturity": 58.379, "architecture_confidence": 79.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.16, "rotation_up": 39.64, "upward_expansion": 66.03, "deceleration": 85.43, "rotation_down": 26.84, "downward_expansion": 16.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.079334, 102.181274, 100.646906, 98.828474 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 104.989998, "trend_reference": 96.664668, "distance_from_trend": 0.086126, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.048398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328174, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.263546, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119296, "excess_performance": -0.051595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086126, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05738, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045246, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.869343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82957, "relative_activity": 2.030995, "balance": 11.869343, "dry_up": 0.854127, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031505, "annualized_volatility": 0.197782, "from_high_reference": -0.00247, "from_low_reference": 0.316489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.664668, "fair_value_reference": 79.048398, "structural_low": 87.010002, 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100.290001, "volume": 15709, "typical_volume": 38485.55, "trend": 96.179001, "fair_value": 78.785898, "relative_strength": -2.866243, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.330853, "energy": 27.177852, "activity_lines": [ 100.930669, 101.540002, 99.953811, 98.260023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.989998, "volume": 82957, "typical_volume": 40845.5, "trend": 96.664668, "fair_value": 79.048398, "relative_strength": -1.263546, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.89603, "energy": 35.405199, "activity_lines": [ 102.079334, 102.181274, 100.646906, 98.828474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }