{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c16a6d1-8fd8-47ef-890b-7ed9e88710e0", "symbol": "000713", "name": "SDIC Fengle Seed Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.295, "architecture_energy": 32.385, "architecture_maturity": 97.846, "architecture_confidence": 82.204, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.82, "rotation_up": 27.64, "upward_expansion": 17.88, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 29.4, "downward_expansion": 63.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.680667, 5.621909, 5.783995, 6.004923 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.76, "trend_reference": 6.299001, "distance_from_trend": -0.085569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.936503, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16961, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.853583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.219512, "excess_performance": -0.226912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16961, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097922, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219512, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.873653, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37679824, "relative_activity": 1.283238, "balance": 0.873653, "dry_up": 1.020206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049126, "annualized_volatility": 0.243502, "from_high_reference": -0.251948, "from_low_reference": 0.095057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.299001, "fair_value_reference": 6.936503, "structural_low": 5.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.009435, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.022335, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.183124, "worst_return": -0.11955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033233, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.029215, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.12987, "worst_return": -0.182882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039478, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.03817, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.222635, "worst_return": -0.288247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-26.374942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.335325, "energy": 85.996512, "activity_lines": [ 5.490906, 5.648577, 5.957758, 6.188279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.64, "volume": 29857375, "typical_volume": 46315582.2, "trend": 6.401668, "fair_value": 7.004789, "relative_strength": -16.429046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.074566, "energy": 77.293007, "activity_lines": [ 5.51991, 5.619237, 5.900663, 6.136601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.54, "volume": 28994026, "typical_volume": 37297989.0, "trend": 6.361668, "fair_value": 6.981384, "relative_strength": -17.490838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.006342, "energy": 57.409912, "activity_lines": [ 5.536667, 5.585601, 5.840615, 6.08101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.75, "volume": 23294410, "typical_volume": 32677968.5, "trend": 6.327668, "fair_value": 6.959899, "relative_strength": -12.34505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.17069, "energy": 43.492004, "activity_lines": [ 5.623333, 5.601332, 5.808519, 6.041547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.76, "volume": 37679824, "typical_volume": 29363088.7, "trend": 6.299001, "fair_value": 6.936503, "relative_strength": -15.853583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.29509, "energy": 32.384801, "activity_lines": [ 5.680667, 5.621909, 5.783995, 6.004923 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }