{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c18f187-fb48-44f1-a494-620af8e71a34", "symbol": "RVRC", "name": "RVRC Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.674, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.596, "architecture_energy": 12.105, "architecture_maturity": 36.81, "architecture_confidence": 53.133, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.29, "rotation_up": 30.18, "upward_expansion": 25.35, "deceleration": 45.76, "rotation_down": 21.6, "downward_expansion": 47.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.009999, 60.373636, 60.246428, 61.424086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 61.849998, "trend_reference": 62.488333, "distance_from_trend": -0.010215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.702731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.219855, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.952465, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055725, "excess_performance": -0.11722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017049, "read": "Falling" 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54.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005691, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.009736, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.255802, "worst_return": -0.099429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038127, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01757, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126899, "worst_return": -0.094592, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021558, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.032675, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.510088, "worst_return": -0.119175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 61.5, "volume": 972598, "typical_volume": 1248476.2, "trend": 63.086667, "fair_value": 49.983789, "relative_strength": -4.029739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.008623, "energy": 27.642812, "activity_lines": [ 59.476666, 59.302727, 60.717381, 61.922796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.099998, "volume": 502878, "typical_volume": 1208654.55, "trend": 62.896667, "fair_value": 50.162036, "relative_strength": -3.852142, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.406504, "energy": 19.770445, "activity_lines": [ 60.053332, 59.726363, 60.573571, 61.794624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.799999, "volume": 529085, "typical_volume": 1164886.0, "trend": 62.663333, "fair_value": 50.328254, "relative_strength": -7.568567, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.262639, "energy": 18.218776, "activity_lines": [ 60.216666, 59.813636, 60.338809, 61.594839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.700001, "volume": 661598, "typical_volume": 1099592.9, "trend": 62.533333, "fair_value": 50.514907, "relative_strength": -7.684474, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.680612, "energy": 19.615242, "activity_lines": [ 60.55, 59.996363, 60.221905, 61.468172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.849998, "volume": 851104, "typical_volume": 1062345.35, "trend": 62.488333, "fair_value": 50.702731, "relative_strength": -7.952465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.59634, "energy": 12.105201, "activity_lines": [ 61.009999, 60.373636, 60.246428, 61.424086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }