{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c1cdc64-8dea-465d-814a-b4f481c563ba", "symbol": "300389", "name": "Shenzhen Absen Optoelectronic Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.158, "architecture_energy": 68.242, "architecture_maturity": 47.973, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 14.23, "deceleration": 45.6, "rotation_down": 55.3, "downward_expansion": 87.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.246667, 12.452, 13.611714, 14.84086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.74, "trend_reference": 16.229, "distance_from_trend": -0.214986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.766335, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074554, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.19019, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351654, "excess_performance": -0.359054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065616, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074554, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351654, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.341277, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25471011, "relative_activity": 0.708198, "balance": 0.341277, "dry_up": 0.700373, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083082, "annualized_volatility": 0.470288, "from_high_reference": -0.420909, "from_low_reference": 0.136485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.229, "fair_value_reference": 13.766335, "structural_low": 11.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.067231, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.019855, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.316151, "worst_return": -0.195545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.245537, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.159203, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.12142, "worst_return": -0.266023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.173308, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.28267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.136196, "worst_return": -0.132839, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.171719, "energy": 87.892906, "activity_lines": [ 12.532667, 13.001636, 14.627048, 15.676108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.63, "volume": 22903156, "typical_volume": 43790628.65, "trend": 16.479, "fair_value": 13.807268, "relative_strength": -27.559851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.653108, "energy": 85.986406, "activity_lines": [ 12.173333, 12.658364, 14.203048, 15.354688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.12, "volume": 24009853, "typical_volume": 39886768.7, "trend": 16.345333, "fair_value": 13.781116, "relative_strength": -23.214095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.310458, "energy": 83.66232, "activity_lines": [ 12.09, 12.471273, 13.861762, 15.073462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.74, "volume": 25471011, "typical_volume": 35965950.35, "trend": 16.229, "fair_value": 13.766335, "relative_strength": -23.19019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.157799, "energy": 68.241949, "activity_lines": [ 12.246667, 12.452, 13.611714, 14.84086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }