{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c1d4b7b-b343-4c58-a45a-560f816b3338", "symbol": "300980", "name": "Hubei Xiangyuan New Material Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.602, "architecture_energy": 80.778, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.207, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 11.5, "upward_expansion": 22.1, "deceleration": 34.24, "rotation_down": 72.32, "downward_expansion": 90.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.674, 24.149356, 26.909711, 29.036365 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.99, "trend_reference": 31.510202, "distance_from_trend": -0.302131, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.316061, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.524528, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.405836, "excess_performance": -0.413236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.302131, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024032, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056873, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.557544, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.405836, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.474792, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25465542, "relative_activity": 1.12927, "balance": 0.474792, "dry_up": 1.347711, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182946, "annualized_volatility": 0.774482, "from_high_reference": -0.455423, "from_low_reference": 0.231933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.510202, "fair_value_reference": 23.316061, "structural_low": 17.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008618, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023544, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.203463, "worst_return": -0.387706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043027, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001636, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.875923, "worst_return": -0.129296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027722, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010235, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.006892, "worst_return": -0.192546, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 20002453.5, "trend": 32.476869, "fair_value": 23.265892, "relative_strength": -6.087181, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.840028, "energy": 25.501427, "activity_lines": [ 29.49679, 28.958417, 30.815731, 31.916138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.58, "volume": 30357431, "typical_volume": 20933333.8, "trend": 32.389869, "fair_value": 23.286103, "relative_strength": -23.558459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.088374, "energy": 42.84205, "activity_lines": [ 27.527562, 27.706883, 29.880893, 31.27763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.25, "volume": 35551592, "typical_volume": 21499406.05, "trend": 32.144869, "fair_value": 23.28856, "relative_strength": -34.743886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.358289, "energy": 54.313599, "activity_lines": [ 24.683216, 26.057637, 28.685673, 30.429897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.42, "volume": 30191346, "typical_volume": 21981166.85, "trend": 31.864869, "fair_value": 23.296164, "relative_strength": -29.427662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.001174, "energy": 80.780131, "activity_lines": [ 22.755333, 24.867535, 27.687026, 29.673454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.99, "volume": 25465542, "typical_volume": 22550436.75, "trend": 31.510202, "fair_value": 23.316061, "relative_strength": -27.524528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.60186, "energy": 80.778145, "activity_lines": [ 21.674, 24.149356, 26.909711, 29.036365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }