{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c1d4ff1-4876-4278-bd62-66dbc7f93795", "symbol": "K1RC34", "name": "The Kroger Co.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.639, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.043, "architecture_energy": 11.779, "architecture_maturity": 18.08, "architecture_confidence": 74.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.3, "rotation_up": 24.86, "upward_expansion": 19.06, "deceleration": 48.77, "rotation_down": 20.46, "downward_expansion": 45.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 334.940002, 334.561456, 333.505159, 335.878809 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 334.940002, "trend_reference": 337.631115, "distance_from_trend": -0.007971, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 312.259773, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.514954, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003714, "excess_performance": 0.053335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007971, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007376, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072633, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06515, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144832, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.747619, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 13.747619, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015079, "annualized_volatility": 0.166752, "from_high_reference": -0.158335, "from_low_reference": 0.06628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 337.631115, "fair_value_reference": 312.259773, "structural_low": 314.119995, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.024964, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.0585, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.023755, "worst_return": -0.100465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.103101, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.186743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269994, "worst_return": -0.117792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.075587, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.160513, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263417, "worst_return": -0.103959, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006006, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0049, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034888, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.039683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074541, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 223.218521, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 911.4, "trend": 222.492202, "fair_value": 210.130526, "relative_strength": -5.125691, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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334.940002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 177.2, "trend": 338.817572, "fair_value": 307.791697, "relative_strength": -11.659324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.081513, "energy": 33.396599, "activity_lines": [ 330.776001, 330.224305, 335.4295, 337.087991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 334.940002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 177.2, "trend": 338.241094, "fair_value": 308.55184, "relative_strength": -11.579304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.309864, "energy": 30.281551, "activity_lines": [ 333.552002, 330.944517, 335.039776, 336.837825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 334.940002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 177.2, "trend": 338.19253, "fair_value": 309.332129, "relative_strength": -12.639894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.504858, "energy": 27.286849, "activity_lines": [ 334.940002, 331.660355, 334.662141, 336.624852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 334.940002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 177.2, "trend": 337.951456, "fair_value": 310.08922, "relative_strength": -9.727209, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.832502, "energy": 26.605074, "activity_lines": [ 334.940002, 332.371819, 334.296595, 336.415011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 334.940002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 169.9, "trend": 337.710381, "fair_value": 310.833493, "relative_strength": -9.066673, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.490569, "energy": 22.298753, "activity_lines": [ 334.940002, 333.07891, 333.943138, 336.220724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 334.940002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 169.9, "trend": 337.469306, "fair_value": 311.57044, "relative_strength": -10.220765, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.251078, "energy": 13.857874, "activity_lines": [ 334.940002, 333.804365, 333.679326, 336.04199 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 334.940002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 169.9, "trend": 337.631115, "fair_value": 312.259773, "relative_strength": -6.514954, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.042795, "energy": 11.779298, "activity_lines": [ 334.940002, 334.561456, 333.505159, 335.878809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }