{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c1e2e82-6e75-41c3-b20a-fa53c936e08e", "symbol": "FCR-UN", "name": "First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.513, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.001, "architecture_energy": 20.098, "architecture_maturity": 56.049, "architecture_confidence": 78.911, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.11, "rotation_up": 25.4, "upward_expansion": 53.38, "deceleration": 81.39, "rotation_down": 27.38, "downward_expansion": 26.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.912138, 23.014616, 23.054393, 22.641613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.9, "trend_reference": 21.954994, "distance_from_trend": 0.043043, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.755115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.366747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.827513, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146607, "excess_performance": 0.026186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043043, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.366747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090617, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146607, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.496514, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2120800, "relative_activity": 0.782846, "balance": 0.496514, "dry_up": 0.84903, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017196, "annualized_volatility": 0.154538, "from_high_reference": -0.03318, "from_low_reference": 0.286335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.954994, "fair_value_reference": 16.755115, "structural_low": 19.853612, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.004251, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.015849, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.04724, "worst_return": -0.062853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002418, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021988, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080443, "worst_return": -0.058399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021288, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001062, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259279, "worst_return": -0.036937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021998, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025518, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035774, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087586, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.171977, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002019, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.215399, "volume": 1334100, "typical_volume": 1643250.0, "trend": 13.300025, "fair_value": 13.241383, "relative_strength": -8.082926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"direction": 50.635719, "energy": 44.048528, "activity_lines": [ 23.23353, 23.247127, 22.918844, 22.315065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.853868, "volume": 2963500, "typical_volume": 2700940.0, "trend": 21.536088, "fair_value": 16.557855, "relative_strength": 1.994486, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.868716, "energy": 44.999546, "activity_lines": [ 23.106918, 23.174941, 22.963693, 22.408907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.823967, "volume": 1987000, "typical_volume": 2681415.0, "trend": 21.683932, "fair_value": 16.622869, "relative_strength": 1.570507, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.225303, "energy": 37.112878, "activity_lines": [ 23.00362, 23.105025, 22.997688, 22.491996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.93, "volume": 2129100, "typical_volume": 2693035.0, "trend": 21.827004, "fair_value": 16.689282, "relative_strength": 2.498432, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.149918, "energy": 27.259307, "activity_lines": [ 22.958315, 23.058122, 23.033068, 22.572387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.9, "volume": 2120800, "typical_volume": 2709090.0, "trend": 21.954994, "fair_value": 16.755115, "relative_strength": -0.827513, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.000876, "energy": 20.097947, "activity_lines": [ 22.912138, 23.014616, 23.054393, 22.641613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }