{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c260890-c931-455f-a5a0-74773cec5f0a", "symbol": "RIIN", "name": "Russell Investments Global Infrastructure ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.174, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.182, "architecture_energy": 14.545, "architecture_maturity": 58.64, "architecture_confidence": 72.28, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.22, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 61.0, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 30.94, "downward_expansion": 15.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.196186, 24.339962, 24.197528, 24.054028 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.83, "trend_reference": 23.77747, "distance_from_trend": 0.002209, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.244882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.417965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039202, "excess_performance": -0.081219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002209, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039922, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039202, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.382633, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18215, "relative_activity": 1.070891, "balance": 0.382633, "dry_up": 0.981204, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023059, "annualized_volatility": 0.126214, "from_high_reference": -0.065124, "from_low_reference": 0.141174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.77747, "fair_value_reference": 19.244882, "structural_low": 22.811441, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.009798, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.002333, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.079312, "worst_return": -0.052974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.035171, "positive_rate": 0.941176, "directional_follow_through": 0.941176, "median_excess_return": 0.003209, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.077259, "worst_return": -0.044734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.062477, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.02067, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.160341, "worst_return": -0.124182, 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23.94271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.59, "volume": 21646, "typical_volume": 19817.8, "trend": 23.637396, "fair_value": 19.13029, "relative_strength": -2.235964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.282584, "energy": 44.984858, "activity_lines": [ 24.558095, 24.445616, 24.200966, 24.010517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 14359, "typical_volume": 18389.9, "trend": 23.718186, "fair_value": 19.189348, "relative_strength": -3.17529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.900166, "energy": 28.247064, "activity_lines": [ 24.418931, 24.428062, 24.218805, 24.046814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.83, "volume": 18215, "typical_volume": 17009.2, "trend": 23.77747, "fair_value": 19.244882, "relative_strength": -7.417965, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.18202, "energy": 14.54486, "activity_lines": [ 24.196186, 24.339962, 24.197528, 24.054028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }