{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c2fa530-3b61-454b-863c-315152dbb862", "symbol": "FISV", "name": "Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.97, "architecture_energy": 23.27, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.273, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.19, "rotation_up": 25.64, "upward_expansion": 14.44, "deceleration": 45.05, "rotation_down": 28.87, "downward_expansion": 59.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.172, 51.633636, 53.243, 54.710624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.41, "trend_reference": 57.050333, "distance_from_trend": -0.081338, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 135.109295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.612092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.737906, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1265, "excess_performance": -0.313954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081338, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075134, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.612092, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1265, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70195664, "relative_activity": 1.965264, "balance": 0.660087, "dry_up": 1.122593, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081231, "annualized_volatility": 0.390655, "from_high_reference": -0.626763, "from_low_reference": 0.114158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.050333, "fair_value_reference": 135.109295, "structural_low": 47.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.01818, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.015473, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.161534, "worst_return": -0.477187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.064018, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.053887, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.212147, "worst_return": -0.536064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.054198, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029277, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.248285, "worst_return": -0.619465, "sufficient": true 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037979, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052146, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.172017, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07184, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.30852, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035815, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05203, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.685527, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 120.08, "volume": 10766208, "typical_volume": 15440653.65, "trend": 117.921, "fair_value": 108.058718, "relative_strength": 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-63.339342, "energy": 61.828502, "activity_lines": [ 50.628, 52.085273, 54.569, 56.347226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.63, "volume": 33602754, "typical_volume": 34098133.45, "trend": 58.569333, "fair_value": 136.506923, "relative_strength": -43.981361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.725187, "energy": 46.08223, "activity_lines": [ 50.58, 51.603455, 54.033286, 55.797785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.02, "volume": 25056467, "typical_volume": 33950938.95, "trend": 58.02, "fair_value": 136.032756, "relative_strength": -41.090272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.095401, "energy": 39.803439, "activity_lines": [ 50.872, 51.280727, 53.590238, 55.310731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.94, "volume": 31533077, "typical_volume": 33923928.45, "trend": 57.631667, "fair_value": 135.578397, "relative_strength": -36.448293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.841839, "energy": 28.496898, "activity_lines": [ 51.926667, 51.567273, 53.48281, 55.047505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.41, "volume": 70195664, "typical_volume": 35718179.8, "trend": 57.050333, "fair_value": 135.109295, "relative_strength": -39.737906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.969514, "energy": 23.270408, "activity_lines": [ 52.172, 51.633636, 53.243, 54.710624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }