{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c304b28-9278-4447-8391-942e965a040b", "symbol": "600867", "name": "Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 85.104, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.72, "architecture_energy": 17.866, "architecture_maturity": 55.816, "architecture_confidence": 69.767, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.56, "rotation_up": 35.19, "upward_expansion": 22.88, "deceleration": 39.59, "rotation_down": 21.79, "downward_expansion": 54.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.205333, 8.051455, 8.161157, 8.36088 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.42, "trend_reference": 8.561821, "distance_from_trend": -0.016564, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.586632, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019406, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.176103, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.069613, "excess_performance": -0.026409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016564, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030315, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019406, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019201, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011761, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047377, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069613, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.295886, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132560198, "relative_activity": 0.728184, "balance": 0.295886, "dry_up": 0.927438, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062371, "annualized_volatility": 0.274979, "from_high_reference": -0.181205, "from_low_reference": 0.15978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.561821, "fair_value_reference": 8.586632, "structural_low": 7.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.012531, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": 0.005638, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.173502, "worst_return": -0.118232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008983, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.029111, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.212992, "worst_return": -0.162431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01371, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002206, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.230418, "worst_return": -0.062984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -44.017443, "energy": 29.328907, "activity_lines": [ 7.966667, 7.89108, 8.244128, 8.431792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.79, "volume": 158344876, "typical_volume": 183304562.2, "trend": 8.552155, "fair_value": 8.600244, "relative_strength": -5.831311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.915874, "energy": 24.736643, "activity_lines": [ 7.947333, 7.865191, 8.173058, 8.381244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.37, "volume": 151375473, "typical_volume": 182049023.2, "trend": 8.553488, "fair_value": 8.593157, "relative_strength": 0.802808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.270143, "energy": 21.195538, "activity_lines": [ 8.099333, 7.956096, 8.163179, 8.369492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.42, "volume": 132560198, "typical_volume": 182042120.65, "trend": 8.561821, "fair_value": 8.586632, "relative_strength": -1.176103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.720382, "energy": 17.866397, "activity_lines": [ 8.205333, 8.051455, 8.161157, 8.36088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }