{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c3e894e-495e-4d98-bc3a-39198a4bafb2", "symbol": "E79", "name": "E79 Gold Mines Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.203, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.974, "architecture_energy": 19.332, "architecture_maturity": 39.672, "architecture_confidence": 66.867, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.26, "rotation_up": 25.54, "upward_expansion": 15.68, "deceleration": 41.05, "rotation_down": 32.85, "downward_expansion": 61.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025333, 0.024964, 0.025886, 0.027333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.028, "trend_reference": 0.029467, "distance_from_trend": -0.049774, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.036215, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.226834, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.200628, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.188706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.226834, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167058, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030835, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.140958, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2465590, "relative_activity": 1.66334, "balance": 2.140958, "dry_up": 1.148938, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162088, "annualized_volatility": 1.012584, "from_high_reference": -0.404255, "from_low_reference": 0.555556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.029467, "fair_value_reference": 0.036215, "structural_low": 0.021, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.064583, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.070694, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 1.05, "worst_return": -0.413333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.225, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.200775, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.05, "worst_return": -0.365079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.325, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.366899, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.518519, "worst_return": -0.409091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.202901, "energy": 50.817531, "activity_lines": [ 0.0246, 0.025473, 0.026881, 0.028546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.023, "volume": 202757, "typical_volume": 1943238.55, "trend": 0.029733, "fair_value": 0.037093, "relative_strength": -16.755177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.268507, "energy": 47.304661, "activity_lines": [ 0.024133, 0.024855, 0.026343, 0.028105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.027, "volume": 3525035, "typical_volume": 1889587.8, "trend": 0.0297, "fair_value": 0.036779, "relative_strength": -2.052747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.581262, "energy": 24.315656, "activity_lines": [ 0.025067, 0.025, 0.026276, 0.027929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.022, "volume": 618957, "typical_volume": 1809775.95, "trend": 0.029533, "fair_value": 0.036471, "relative_strength": -21.966715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.194862, "energy": 36.142979, "activity_lines": [ 0.0242, 0.024364, 0.025771, 0.027432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.028, "volume": 2465590, "typical_volume": 1482312.35, "trend": 0.029467, "fair_value": 0.036215, "relative_strength": -4.200628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.973875, "energy": 19.331548, "activity_lines": [ 0.025333, 0.024964, 0.025886, 0.027333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }