{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c3ecd90-20a3-4849-b709-7166ea03fd4e", "symbol": "300580", "name": "Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.67, "architecture_energy": 51.618, "architecture_maturity": 22.542, "architecture_confidence": 95.022, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.65, "rotation_up": 16.33, "upward_expansion": 12.68, "deceleration": 37.69, "rotation_down": 55.44, "downward_expansion": 79.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.603333, 21.22858, 22.992516, 23.478984 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.530001, "trend_reference": 24.103597, "distance_from_trend": -0.106772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.800196, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012394, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.909044, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116174, "excess_performance": -0.123574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037545, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012394, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.448839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127241, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.536032, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68946788, "relative_activity": 1.137678, "balance": 0.536032, "dry_up": 1.247853, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165462, "annualized_volatility": 0.818828, "from_high_reference": -0.329646, "from_low_reference": 0.205487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.103597, "fair_value_reference": 21.800196, "structural_low": 17.860001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.05644, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003286, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.374914, "worst_return": -0.093821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.22562, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.003522, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.504847, "worst_return": -0.261308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.241784, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.080357, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.470331, "worst_return": -0.223875, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136128, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006313, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.276196, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048705, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193459, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 14.844007, "volume": 54226840, "typical_volume": 45818702.6, "trend": 11.634934, "fair_value": 9.606011, "relative_strength": 47.027754, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 17.98, "volume": 62542685, "typical_volume": 55288597.55, "trend": 24.385597, "fair_value": 21.720706, "relative_strength": -29.035391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.905076, "energy": 43.047452, "activity_lines": [ 20.668, 21.605992, 23.527163, 23.876265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.959999, "volume": 83484484, "typical_volume": 58397340.95, "trend": 24.262263, "fair_value": 21.756307, "relative_strength": -15.423599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.051915, "energy": 49.596743, "activity_lines": [ 20.638, 21.2968, 23.230506, 23.655259 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.530001, "volume": 68946788, "typical_volume": 60603076.4, "trend": 24.103597, "fair_value": 21.800196, "relative_strength": -16.909044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.670147, "energy": 51.618068, "activity_lines": [ 20.603333, 21.22858, 22.992516, 23.478984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }